Full Breakdown
UN Report Warns Conflict-Driven Energy and Fertiliser Shocks Will Deepen Global Hunger
7/23/2026, 11:30:05 AM
Core Event
A United Nations food-security report released on Tuesday warns that ongoing wars and related disruptions to energy and fertiliser markets could push millions more into chronic hunger. The International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) president Alvaro Lario said the report projects more than 500 million people could remain chronically undernourished by 2030, with 9 to 18 million additional people at risk if current shocks persist. Africa is identified as the region that will bear the largest share of this burden.
Background & Context
The report links the surge in fuel, fertiliser and food prices to several geopolitical crises: the Iran war, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and related uncertainties in the Strait of Hormuz. These conflicts disrupt shipping routes and energy supplies, raising the cost of agricultural inputs that small-scale farmers rely on for irrigation, harvesting and transport. Climate-related events—floods, prolonged droughts and extreme heat—are also cited as compounding pressures on food systems worldwide.
Data & Statistics
- Projected chronic hunger (2030): > 500 million people.
- Additional hunger risk from ongoing shocks: 9 – 18 million people (Lario, interview July 10).
- Cost of a healthy diet: 4.28 PPP $ per person per day in 2022, up from 3.44 PPP $ in 2021.
- Highest regional cost: Latin America and the Caribbean at 4.91 PPP $ per day.
- Affordability gap: Roughly one-third of the global population cannot afford a healthy diet; in low-income countries the figure rises to about 77 %.
- African food imports: Nearly $100 billion (€87.7 bn) annually, underscoring reliance on external supplies.
Why It Matters / Impact
The report emphasizes that the principal challenge has shifted from producing enough food to making healthy diets affordable. Higher energy prices increase fertiliser costs and raise production expenses for smallholders, who in turn pass costs onto consumers. Disruptions in post-farmgate activities—processing, logistics and wholesale—account for about 40 % of total food-system costs, making supply-chain resilience critical. Without investment in agriculture, infrastructure, irrigation and cold-chain technologies, the cost of perishable foods will remain volatile, threatening food security for the world’s most vulnerable.
Official Statements & Responses
He called for political commitment, sustained investment and enabling policies to end hunger and make healthy diets affordable. FAO Director-General QU Dongyu echoed this, noting that recent crises—from the COVID-19 pandemic to the Gaza conflict and the Strait of Hormuz disruption—have demonstrated both the resilience and the fragility of agrifood systems, highlighting the need for stronger support to farmers and consumers.
Verbatim Quotes
- “This is just becoming the new normal,” — Alvaro Lario, IFAD president
- “Ending hunger and making healthy diets affordable requires political commitment, sustained investment and enabling policies,” — QU Dongyu, FAO Director-General
- “Recent crises – from natural disasters like the COVID-19 pandemic to man-made disaster like hotspots of conflicts, the war in Ukraine, the Gaza crisis, and the recent Strait of Hormuz disruption - have demonstrated both the resilience of agrifood systems and the need to strengthen them further to better serve the world’s most vulnerable people, farmers and consumers,” — Dongyu, FAO Director-General
- “We are in an era where we have the highest number of conflicts and they are increasing,” — Alvaro Lario, IFAD president
