Full Breakdown
Deutsche Bank Forecasts 4.7% Growth for China, Citing Policy Support and Lower Oil Prices
7/23/2026, 1:14:14 PM
Core Outlook for 2026
Deutsche Bank projects that China’s gross domestic product will expand by 4.7 percent in 2026, staying within the government’s target range of 4.5-5 percent. The bank’s outlook hinges on anticipated stronger policy support and a decline in oil prices, which together are expected to lift domestic demand, especially in the services sector, during the second half of the year.
Policy Measures Driving Services Consumption
Chief economist for China, Xiong Yi, notes that recent government initiatives aim to stimulate services spending. These measures include extending public holidays, expanding paid leave, and providing subsidies for elderly care and childcare. Xiong argues that such policies will make services a primary engine of consumer demand over the next five to ten years.
Economic Drivers Highlighted by Deutsche Bank
According to Xiong, China’s long-term competitiveness will increasingly rely on technology, artificial intelligence, and advanced manufacturing as a growing share of college graduates choose science and engineering fields over business majors. The bank expects that continued policy backing, combined with lower oil prices, will reinforce this shift and sustain growth.
Implications for the Chinese Economy
If the forecast holds, stronger services consumption could offset slower growth in other sectors, helping China maintain momentum amid global economic uncertainties. The emphasis on technology and advanced manufacturing aligns with broader strategic goals to move the economy up the value chain.
Sources and Attribution
The analysis is based on reporting by Deutsche Bank’s China chief economist Xiong Yi, with additional contributions from Huang Qi. No direct quotations were available in the source material.
