Full Breakdown
Rubio Gains Ground on Vance in New Hampshire 2028 GOP Primary Poll
7/24/2026, 5:51:19 AM
Core Event: Shift in Republican Primary Support
A University of New Hampshire Survey Center poll of likely 2028 Republican primary voters in New Hampshire shows Vice President JD Vance at 36 % support and Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 26 %. The same survey places Kentucky Senator Rand Paul and former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley each at 8 %, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 6 %, former Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard at 4 %, and Louisiana Senator John Kennedy at 2 %.
Background & Context
Vance has been described as the “heir apparent” to President Donald Trump’s base, while Rubio, a former 2016 primary contender, has risen in national visibility through his duties as secretary of state and involvement in U.S. operations in Venezuela and the war against Iran. Earlier UNH surveys in February gave Vance 53 % and Rubio 7 % support, a double-digit gap that has now narrowed to ten points.
Data & Statistics
- Poll dates: June 26-28 2026 (1,261 registered Republican voters; 1.8 % margin of error); July 15-20 2026 (1,458 online respondents; ±2.6 % margin of error).
- Current support: Vance 36 %, Rubio 26 %; Paul 8 %, Haley 8 %, DeSantis 6 %, Gabbard 4 %, Kennedy 2 %.
- Earlier February figures: Vance 53 %, Rubio 7 % (UNH poll); Vance 51 %, Rubio 5 % (October poll).
- National comparison: A Zogby Analytics poll of likely voters (July 1-4 2026) still shows Vance leading Democratic contenders, indicating the New Hampshire shift may not yet reflect the broader electorate.
Official Statements & Responses
Rubio has indicated he would support Vance if the vice president runs, while noting he lacks a dedicated campaign staff comparable to Vance’s growing team.
Verbatim Quotes
- “In all fairness, he's the vice president,” — Donald Trump, to term-limited president
- “I think it's so interesting the media wants to create this conflict where there just isn't any conflict.” — The Story
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The New Hampshire Granite State poll shows a markedly tighter GOP race than earlier national surveys, which still place Vance well ahead of other Republican contenders. The poll’s methodology (online panel vs. text-recruited respondents) and its limited geographic focus create uncertainty about how the trend will translate to a nationwide primary electorate. No candidate has formally announced a 2028 run, leaving the ultimate field and campaign dynamics unconfirmed.
What’s Next
Republican donors are reportedly exploring ways to raise Rubio’s profile, while Vance continues to assemble a campaign advisory team. Both men remain non-committal about a 2028 bid, citing focus on the current administration and upcoming 2026 midterm elections. The next major data point will be the 2028 primary contests, beginning with New Hampshire’s first-in-the-nation vote later in the election cycle.
