Full Breakdown
Yashar Party Leads Likud in Latest Polls Amid AI-Generated Campaign Ads Controversy
7/24/2026, 11:10:20 AM
Core Event: Recent Polls Put Yashar Ahead of Likud
Two independent July surveys show former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud. A Maariv poll gave Yashar 23 seats, two more than Likud’s 20. The Times of Israel’s Zman Yisrael poll reported Yashar at 25 seats, four ahead of Likud’s 21.
Background & Context: Election Timeline and Recent Conflict
Israel’s parliamentary election is set for October 27. The campaign unfolds amid the Iran war that began on February 28, which has weakened Likud’s poll standing.
Data & Statistics: Seat Projections from Two Recent Surveys
| Party | Maariv poll (seats) | Zman Yisrael poll (seats) |
|---|---|---|
| Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot) | 23 | 25 |
| Likud (Benjamin Netanyahu) | 20 | 21 |
| Together (Naftali Bennett) | 17 | 13 |
| Yisrael Beytenu | 10 | 10 |
| Democrats (Yair Golan) | 11 | 10 |
| Shas | 9 | 9 |
| United Torah Judaism | 8 | 8 |
| Otzma Yehudit | 8 | 8 |
| Religious Zionism (Bezalel Smotrich) | 5 | 5 |
| Arab parties (combined) | 10 | 11 |
Parties led by Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel failed to cross the electoral threshold, each receiving under 3 % of the vote.
Official Statements & Responses: Party Reactions to AI-Generated Ads
After an AI-generated video showed a young man in an “Israeli unity” shirt rejecting Eisenkot, Yashar’s leadership called the clip an attempt to hide Eisenkot’s reliance on the Democrats and Arab parties. Netanyahu’s aide Jonatan Urich posted a revised version featuring a woman, saying it was meant “to remove any doubt.” Yashar responded with a supercut of past coalition agreements with Mansour Abbas of Ra’am, highlighting ministers who praised Abbas.
Criticism & Opposition: Media and Public Reaction to the AI Ad
Journalists Guy Peleg and Barak Seri criticized the original ad for linking Eisenkot’s son Gal, killed in Gaza in December 2023, to a “heavenly” setting. Blue and White chairman Benny Gantz released his own AI clip, showing Netanyahu ignoring a uniformed soldier and embracing United Torah Judaism leader I
Conflicting Reports & Gaps: Discrepancies Between the Two Polls
The polls differ on Yashar’s lead: two seats in the Maariv poll versus four in the Zman Yisrael poll. Likud’s projected seats also vary (20 vs. 21). No source explains the divergence, leaving the exact size of the opposition’s advantage unclear.
What’s Next: October 27 Election and Coalition Prospects
Both polls suggest the Zionist opposition bloc will retain a majority over Netanyahu’s coalition. Eisenkot would still need support from at least one Arab-majority party to form a government. The contested AI-generated advertisements are expected to influence voter perceptions in the weeks before the vote.
