Full Breakdown
SpaceX Shares Plunge, Short Sellers Reap Billions as Company Faces Multiple Near-Term Tests
7/24/2026, 8:37:49 PM
Core Event: Post-IPO Share Decline and Short-Seller Gains
Since its mid-June IPO, SpaceX’s stock has fallen sharply, closing at $115.26 on July 22—about 48 % below the June 16 peak of $225.64 and 12.4 % under the $135 IPO price. The slide erased more than $1 trillion in market value. Short sellers have accumulated an estimated $15.5 billion in unrealized paper profit, according to Ortex Technologies. Roughly 56 % of the free-float shares are out on loan, and about 31 % of the tradable float has been sold short.
Background & Context
SpaceX’s $75 billion IPO was priced at $135 per share on June 12. Valuation rests on the Starship launch system, the Starlink satellite network, and a $60 billion all-stock acquisition of AI-coding startup Cursor. Investor concerns have risen over debt-funded AI spending, a $4.28 billion first-quarter loss, and rising yields on its 2056 bonds (now 7.6 %).
Timeline of Key Developments
| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| June 11 | Shares begin trading on Nasdaq. |
| June 16 | Intraday high of $225.64 recorded. |
| July 16 | Starship Flight 13 scrubbed due to engine-ignition failure. |
| July 22 | Shares close at record low $115.26. |
| July 23 | Shares rebound to $118.25; short-seller paper profit reported at $15.5 billion. |
| August 4 (scheduled) | First quarterly earnings report as a public company. |
| August 6 (scheduled) | Lock-up expiration could release up to 911.5 million insider shares. |
Data & Statistics
- Paper profit for short sellers: $15.5 billion (Ortex, July 21).
- Free-float out on loan: ~360 million shares (56 %).
- Shares sold short: 196 million (?31 % of tradable float, Ortex).
- Market-cap loss: >$1 trillion.
- Bond yields: 7.6 % on 2056 notes; risk premium up from 1.75 % at launch.
Official Statements & Responses
SpaceX CEO Elon Musk posted on X that firms maintaining large short positions face “a very low” probability of survival. S3 Partners’ head of research, Matthew Unterman, noted continuous demand from short sellers building speculative positions since the IPO.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Short-interest figures differ between data providers: Ortex estimates 196 million shares sold short (?31 % of tradable float), while S3 Partners reports about 185 million (?29 %). Both agree roughly half of the free float is out on loan, but the exact proportion of shares actually shorted remains unclear.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The survival probability of firms who maintain a significant short position in SpaceX over time is very low,” — Elon Musk
- “We are seeing continuous demand from short sellers building speculative positions since the IPO,” — Matthew Unterman
What’s Next
The 13th test flight of Starship, now rescheduled for the Thursday after the July 23 report, will attempt the first deployment of next-generation Starlink V3 satellites. Investors will watch the August 4 earnings release for cash-flow visibility, followed by the August 6 lock-up expiration that could flood the market with up to 911.5 million shares.
