Full Breakdown
SpaceX Shares Near $100: What the Price Means for Its AI Business
7/25/2026, 11:28:29 AM
Core Event
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas warned that if SpaceX’s share price falls to $100, the market would be assigning zero—or even negative—value to the company’s artificial-intelligence (AI) segment. Jonas’ note, released on July 24, ties the $100 threshold to the upcoming expiration of the first post-IPO lockup, when insiders could sell a large block of shares.
Background & Context
SpaceX went public in mid-June, raising $86 billion at $135 per share. The stock peaked at $225.64 on June 16 before sliding to roughly half its IPO value. In February 2026, SpaceX integrated Elon Musk’s AI startup xAI (now SpaceXAI), adding the Grok language model and the Cursor developer tool. The AI unit now sits alongside launch services, Starlink broadband, and Starship.
Data & Statistics
| Metric | Figure | Source |
|---|---|---|
| IPO proceeds | $86 billion | Bloomberg |
| Share price low (week of July 24) | $110.85 (intraday) | Bloomberg |
| Close on July 24 | $114.87 | BigGo |
| Lockup value (first batch) | $116 billion | Bloomberg |
| Average analyst target | $232 | Bloomberg |
| Morgan Stanley target | $300 ( > 50 % AI) | Bloomberg |
| Google AI compute deal | $920 million/month (Oct 2026-Jun 2029) | Reuters |
| Anthropic AI compute deal | $1.25 billion/month (through May 2029) | TechCrunch |
| Combined annualized AI revenue (proj.) | ? $26 billion | Reuters/TechCrunch |
| xAI Q1 2026 loss | $2.47 billion on $818 million revenue | Morningstar |
| Q1 2026 AI capex | $7.7 billion | Morningstar |
| Forecasted free-cash-flow-positive year | 2035 (no earlier) | Morgan Stanley |
Official Statements & Responses
Jonas noted that many investors “significantly discount Grok & Cursor,” seeing the AI segment’s capital-intensive needs as a valuation drag. Bloomberg data show nearly 80 % of analysts covering SpaceX recommend buying, with targets suggesting the stock could more than double its current level.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Most investors we speak with significantly discount Grok & Cursor,” — Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley analyst
What’s Next
- Lockup expiration: The first batch of $116 billion in shares becomes eligible for sale on the second trading day after SpaceX’s Q2 earnings release.
- Earnings report: SpaceX will report Q2 results after market close on August 4, with insider sales possible by August 6.
- Starship test flight: A delayed Starship launch is scheduled for July 24, which could affect sentiment ahead of the earnings call.
