Full Breakdown
Typhoon Noul Threatens Southern China and Hong Kong with Heavy Rain and Disruptions
7/25/2026, 11:48:39 AM
Core Event: Noul Approaches the Southern Coast
On July 24, 2026, Noul was northeast of Manila, moving west-northwest at 25-30 km h?¹. The Hong Kong Observatory warned the storm would pass within 800 km of the city and could intensify to a typhoon with winds of 130-144 km h?¹. Mainland authorities projected landfall between Zhuhai and Zhangpu, with localized rainfall of 500-600 mm in eastern Guangdong and southern Fujian.
Background & Context
Noul is the third cyclone to affect the region in July 2026, following Typhoons Bavi (July 11) and Maysak (July 3), which prompted large-scale evacuations.
Data & Statistics
- Wind: Forecasts of up to 151 km h?¹ (CMA) and 130 km h?¹ (Hong Kong Observatory).
- Rainfall: 500-600 mm possible in eastern Guangdong and southern Fujian; some models show up to 450 mm in 24 hours.
- Transport impacts: More than 150 flights cancelled in Hong Kong (46 on Saturday, 110 on Sunday). Over 100 high-speed rail services suspended, and Guangdong rail operations expected to halt by July 26.
- Evacuations & safety: Over 20,000 residents ordered to evacuate in Guangdong; rescue teams searching for more than 50 missing after a landslide in Chongqing.
Official Statements & Responses
- Hong Kong Observatory: Raised Standby Signal T1 on July 24 and upgraded to No. 3 Strong Wind Signal, indicating sustained winds of 41-62 km h?¹ and squally showers even if the storm stays beyond 300 km.
- China Meteorological Administration: Forecast landfall as a typhoon on eastern Guangdong coast with winds up to 144 km h?¹.
- National Meteorological Centre: Issued an orange typhoon alert, urging residents to stay indoors, dock boats, and cancel large gatherings.
- Cathay Pacific: Activated a fee-free rebooking, rerouting, and refund policy for Hong Kong flights issued on or before July 24, 2026; changes must be requested by July 29, 2026.
On-the-Ground Reports
Hong Kong schools suspended afternoon classes on July 24, and the Housing Authority heightened construction-site preparedness. The MTR cancelled more than 100 high-speed rail trains. In Guangdong, ferry services were suspended on July 25-26 and coastal scenic areas closed.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Forecast models differ on Noul’s track. The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center and European models vary on proximity to Hong Kong, while AI-based models suggest a more northerly landfall between Xiamen and Fuzhou. The Observatory noted uncertainty about a possible T8 signal (winds >=63 km h?¹).
What’s Next
The Observatory expects Noul to downgrade to a tropical depression by July 27. Travelers should monitor the MyObservatory service for updates and complete any Cathay Pacific rebooking before the July 29 deadline. Continued heavy rain may increase flood risk in Guangdong and Fujian throughout the weekend.
