Minor Geomagnetic Storm Forecast May Bring Northern Lights to the Upper Midwest and Pacific Northwest

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center issued a watch on July 22, 2026 for a G1-class geomagnetic storm. Forecasters expect the storm to peak on the night of July 23 and continue into July 24, with a planetary disturbance index (Kp) possibly reaching 5.33. A Kp of five can extend the auroral oval into the northern United States.

Northern lights tonight: NOAA issues minor geomagnetic storm watch for parts of the northern US

Two coronal mass ejections left the Sun on July 20 and July 21. If both intersect Earth’s magnetosphere, they could combine to produce the predicted G1 storm. A high-speed solar-wind stream is also expected on July 24, reinforcing activity.

Forbes

NOAA’s forecast maps list the highest likelihood of auroral visibility in:

Forbes

• Washington, Idaho, Montana, North Dakota, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan’s Upper Peninsula, and Maine

Forbes

Alaska has a higher probability. Under a possible G2 storm (? 25 % probability), aurora could also be seen in Oregon, Wyoming, Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, New York, Vermont, and New Hampshire. The three-day Kp forecast (ending July 26) anticipates a maximum of 5.33.

Forbes

NOAA advises viewing between 10 p.m. and 2 a.m. local time from a dark site with an unobstructed northern horizon. Photographers should use low apertures, wide-angle lenses, and sturdy tripods; smartphone users can rely on night-mode or “Pro” settings. Real-time conditions are available via NOAA’s 30-minute aurora forecast and space-weather apps.

People Magazine

The UK Met Office’s Space Weather Operations Center issued a parallel assessment, describing the July 21 CME as a “possible glancing Earth-directed event” and noting a similar chance of a G1 storm.

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*Probability of a G2 storm*: Forbes reports a 25 % chance, while People and Starlust describe only a “possibility of G1” activity for July 24.

Forbes

*Geographic extent*: Some sources list additional states (e.g., Vermont, New Hampshire) under a G2 scenario, whereas others limit the forecast to the northern-tier states above. No definitive map for the G2 possibility is available.

Forbes

NOAA will update its 30-minute aurora forecast throughout the night of July 23-24. Observers should monitor real-time space-weather alerts and local cloud forecasts, as auroral intensity can fluctuate within minutes.

UsNews and World Report