Story perspectives

Analysts See 90% Chance Musk Merger; SpaceX Shares Drop 50%

7/25/2026

Summary

Story summary

Analysts see a 90% chance that Elon Musk’s hinted Tesla-SpaceX merger will happen within two years, and note the combined firm would start with net loss because SpaceX’s losses exceed Tesla’s profits.
SpaceX shares have fallen 50% to $110.85, prompting issuance that dilutes holders and raises Musk’s voting power above 50%.
Tesla posted Q2 2026 revenue of $28.24 billion while SpaceX will webcast results on August 4, possibly releasing up to 911.5 million shares.

History

Historical Context

The 2000 AOL-Time Warner merger, valued at $165 billion, collapsed within five years, eroding shareholder value. AOL’s stock plummeted 70% after the deal, while Time Warner’s earnings fell 15% in 2002, as reported by The Wall Street Journal. Similarly, analysts assign a 90% probability that Elon Musk will merge Tesla with SpaceX, forming a conglomerate that starts with a net loss. If history repeats, the merged entity could face diluted equity, volatile stock performance, and regulatory scrutiny, echoing the post-merger turmoil that plagued AOL-Time Warner.

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Story summary

Analysts see a 90% chance that Elon Musk’s hinted Tesla-SpaceX merger will happen within two years, and note the combined firm would start with net loss because SpaceX’s losses exceed Tesla’s profits.
SpaceX shares have fallen 50% to $110.85, prompting issuance that dilutes holders and raises Musk’s voting power above 50%.
Tesla posted Q2 2026 revenue of $28.24 billion while SpaceX will webcast results on August 4, possibly releasing up to 911.5 million shares.

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