Full Breakdown
Federal Reserve Likely to Hold Rates at July 29 Meeting Amid Rising Oil Prices
7/25/2026, 8:20:14 PM
Core Event
The Federal Open Market Committee is set to announce its next interest-rate decision on Wednesday, July 29 at 2 p.m. ET, followed by a press conference at 2:30 p.m. ET. All indications point to keeping the benchmark federal-funds rate in its current 3.5 %–3.75 % target range, which would mark the fifth consecutive meeting with no change.
Background & Context
At the start of 2024, many economists anticipated at least one rate cut in 2026. However, a resurgence of inflation tied to climbing energy costs—oil recently topping $100 a barrel—has shifted forecasts toward higher rates later in the year. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh has reiterated the goal of returning inflation to the Fed’s 2 % target but has offered little forward guidance.
Data & Statistics
Official Statements & Responses
Warsh’s upcoming press conference is expected to provide limited insight into future policy, reflecting his pledge to reduce forward guidance. Economists surveyed by FactSet project the Fed will maintain the 3.5 %–3.75 % range. Gregory Daco, chief economist for EY-Parthenon, noted in a July 22 email that while a July hike is “highly unlikely,” the September FOMC meeting will be the first substantive test of whether recent inflation improvements endure.
Verbatim Quotes
- “While a July rate hike remains highly unlikely, the September FOMC meeting could become the first meaningful test of whether the recent improvement in inflation proves durable,” — Gregory Daco, the chief economist for EY-Parthenon
