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Full Breakdown

Typhoon Noul Threatens Southern China and Hong Kong

7/25/2026, 8:26:25 PM

Core Event

Typhoon Noul, the 12th named storm of the 2026 Pacific season, intensified over the South China Sea on July 24 2026 and was forecast to make landfall along the eastern Guangdong coast between Saturday night and early Sunday. The China Meteorological Administration projected maximum sustained winds of 144 km/h (89 mph) at landfall, while the Hong Kong Observatory estimated 10-minute sustained winds of about 140 km/h (87 mph). The storm’s centre was moving west-northwestward at roughly 25–30 km/h, placing it within 800 km of Hong Kong on July 24 and expected to pass about 100 km northeast of the city on Sunday morning.

Background & Context

The region entered its peak flood-control window (mid-July to mid-August) after a series of heavy downpours. Earlier in the month Typhoon Bavi (July 11) and Typhoon Maysak (July 3) caused flooding and evacuations across southern and central China, leaving soils saturated and rivers high.

Official Statements & Responses

  • The National Meteorological Center issued an orange typhoon alert on Friday, forecasting landfall between Zhuhai and Zhangpu and urging residents to avoid unnecessary travel.
  • The State Flood Control and Drought Relief Headquarters activated a Level-IV emergency response for flood and typhoon control in Guangdong and Fujian and dispatched a working group to assist local authorities.
  • Xinhua reported that the emergency response in Guangdong was upgraded to Level III, with twelve cities suspending classes, work and transportation.
  • The Ministry of Emergency Management launched a Level-IV geological-disaster response for Guangdong, Fujian, Jiangxi and Hunan and directed the Ministry of Agriculture to accelerate harvests and protect aquaculture.

Conflicting Reports & Gaps

  • Rainfall totals: CMA forecasts cite 450 mm in 24 hours, while NMC projects 500–600 mm in localized areas.
  • Evacuation numbers: Xinhua’s figure of 340,000 evacuees in Guangdong contrasts with other reports of “more than 20,000” relocated. No unified count is available for Fujian, Jiangxi or Hunan.
  • Wind intensity: The CMA’s 144 km/h estimate differs from the JTWC’s 158 km/h projection.

What’s Next

Guidance indicated Noul would make landfall by July 26 2026, then weaken while moving northward inland. The Hong Kong Observatory signaled a possible upgrade to the No. 8 signal later on Saturday night and monitoring for higher signals on Sunday. Emergency response levels remain in effect, with authorities ready to mobilize additional rescue vessels, helicopters and relief ships. Continuous updates from the NMC, Hong Kong Observatory and local transport operators are advised for travelers and residents throughout the weekend.