SpaceX Share Slide Signals Investor Doubt on AI Valuation, Morgan Stanley Says

SpaceX’s post-IPO stock has fallen sharply, reaching a low of $110.85—about 18 % below the offering price. The decline follows an initial surge of nearly 50 % in the first three trading sessions after the company’s record $86 billion offering in mid-June. Analysts note that the current price level would imply investors assign little to no value to SpaceX’s artificial-intelligence (AI) segment.

Bloomberg

The sell-off occurs amid a broader rotation away from technology firms heavily investing in AI infrastructure. A shaky macroeconomic backdrop, higher oil prices driven by U.S.–Iran tensions, and inflation concerns have dampened risk-asset sentiment. Despite the price drop, roughly 80 % of analysts covering SpaceX maintain buy-equivalent ratings, and the average price target of about $232 suggests expectations of a more than double upside from current levels.

Bloomberg

• Current trading price: $110.85 (?18 % below IPO price).

Bloomberg

• Morgan Stanley price target: $300, with over half attributed to the AI business.

Bloomberg

• Average Bloomberg-compiled price target: $232, implying >100 % upside.

Bloomberg

• Analysts expect the lock-up expiration next month could pressure the stock toward $100, a level Morgan Stanley says would price AI at zero or negative value.

Bloomberg

He warned that many investors “significantly discount Grok & Cursor,” the company’s AI products, and that high capital-expenditure requirements and uncertain economics contribute to the low AI valuation. Jonas’s $300 target ranks third among 33 analysts tracked by Bloomberg, reflecting his historically bullish stance on high-growth tech firms.

Bloomberg

• “Most investors we speak with significantly discount Grok & Cursor,” — Adam Jonas, morgan stanley analyst — Adam Jonas, Morgan Stanley analyst

Bloomberg