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Fed Decision Looms as Oil Hits $100, Inflation Risks Rise

7/25/2026

44 6 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will announce the July 29 Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision at 2 p.m. ET.
CME FedWatch shows a 34.7% chance of a 25-basis-point hike and a 65.3% chance of holding rates.
Oil prices rose, with Brent crude topping $100 a barrel and WTI reaching $92.19, raising inflation concerns.
Governors Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller said they stand ready to act on inflation.

History

Historical Context

In August 1979, Fed Chairman Paul Volcker raised the federal-funds target to 11 percent to fight inflation that had hit about 11.3 percent. The move followed the 1973-74 OPEC embargo and the 1979 oil-price shock from the Iranian Revolution, which pushed crude above $30 per barrel and shrank GDP. Volcker’s aggressive tightening sparked the 1980 recession but showed steep hikes could tame stagflation.

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Story summary

Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will announce the July 29 Federal Reserve (Fed) policy decision at 2 p.m. ET.
CME FedWatch shows a 34.7% chance of a 25-basis-point hike and a 65.3% chance of holding rates.
Oil prices rose, with Brent crude topping $100 a barrel and WTI reaching $92.19, raising inflation concerns.
Governors Lisa Cook and Christopher Waller said they stand ready to act on inflation.

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