Full Breakdown
Typhoon Noul Hits Southern China and Hong Kong, Prompting Massive Evacuations and Transport Disruptions
7/26/2026, 12:18:00 AM
Background & Context – Recent Typhoon Activity and Flood Season
Noul arrived after a string of tropical cyclones in July, including Typhoon Bavi, which forced the evacuation of over 2 million people, and Typhoon Maysak, which struck southern China on July 3. The region is in its peak flood-control window (mid-July to mid-August), a period known locally as “Qixia Bashang,” when authorities heighten flood-mitigation measures.
Timeline
| Date (2026) | Event |
|---|---|
| July 24 (Friday) | China warned of heavy rain and severe flood risk as Noul tracked closer to the southern coast. |
| July 24 (evening) | Hong Kong Observatory forecast Noul would move within 800 km of the city and projected gradual wind strengthening. |
| July 25 (Saturday) | Observatory issued No. 3 signal at 13:20 local time and raised it to No. 8 at 20:40. |
| July 25-26 | Guangdong suspended rail services; high-speed and regular trains halted on July 26. |
| July 25-26 | Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao bridge closed; multiple airports reported cancellations and delays. |
| July 26 (Sunday) | Expected landfall around Huizhou and Shanwei; heavy squally showers to affect the region. |
Data & Statistics
- Flight disruptions: 46 cancellations on Saturday and 110 on Sunday at Hong Kong International Airport; 126 departures and 112 arrivals delayed on Saturday.
- Evacuations: More than 340,000 residents relocated in Guangdong and over 23,000 in Fujian.
- Rainfall forecasts: CMA projected 500–600 mm across eastern Guangdong and southern Fujian, while Bloomberg noted up to 450 mm within 24 hours.
- Wind speeds: Hong Kong Observatory reported sustained winds of 90 mph (?144 kph); CMA cited top sustained winds of 144 kph.
Official Statements & Responses
- The Hong Kong Observatory warned that “local winds will strengthen progressively” and that “strong winds and outer rainbands” would affect coastal areas, prompting school class cancellations.
- Steven Yiu Si-wing, acting CEO of the Airport Authority, urged passengers to verify flight status before traveling.
- China’s National Meteorological Centre advised residents to avoid unnecessary travel and watch for danger.
- The Chinese government issued its highest-tier red typhoon alert on Saturday evening.
On-the-Ground Reports
- Passersby in Hong Kong’s Mong Kok district walked under heavy rain and wind on Saturday.
- A large scaffolding section on a high-rise building collapsed in Hong Kong; police reported no injuries.
- Residents in Guangdong reported suspended rail services and halted ferry operations on the Hong Kong-Zhuhai-Macao bridge.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Model divergence: The US Joint Typhoon Warning Center predicted rapid intensification and a landfall as a typhoon, while European models suggested a wider range of possible tracks.
- Rainfall estimates: CMA’s forecast of 500–600 mm contrasts with Bloomberg’s estimate of up to 450 mm, indicating a lack of consensus on peak precipitation totals.
What’s Next – Ongoing Risks and Planned Measures
Authorities expect continued transport disruptions as rail and ferry services remain suspended. Flood-control agencies will monitor river levels in Guangdong and Fujian, where saturated soils increase the likelihood of landslides and flash flooding. Residents are advised to stay updated on signal changes from the Hong Kong Observatory and to follow evacuation orders if conditions worsen.
