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Emerson Poll Gives Democrats House Edge, Senate Toss-up

7/26/2026

36 8 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

Geoffrey Skelley gives Democrats a 60 % chance to win the House and Republicans a 60 % chance to keep 50-50 Senate.
Emerson College Poll shows an 11-point Democratic lead, the widest margin.
Republicans blame the Iran war and oil prices for hurting the economy and President Donald Trump’s approval.
Rep. Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed contest a primary on Aug. 4, a loss that would raise Republicans’ Senate odds to 86 %.

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Story summary

Geoffrey Skelley gives Democrats a 60 % chance to win the House and Republicans a 60 % chance to keep 50-50 Senate.
Emerson College Poll shows an 11-point Democratic lead, the widest margin.
Republicans blame the Iran war and oil prices for hurting the economy and President Donald Trump’s approval.
Rep. Haley Stevens and Abdul El-Sayed contest a primary on Aug. 4, a loss that would raise Republicans’ Senate odds to 86 %.