Full Breakdown
Oil Prices Surge Amid Escalating US-Iran Conflict and Red Sea Shipping Attacks
7/26/2026, 8:25:27 PM
Core Event: Spike in Oil Futures Linked to Shipping Disruptions
In late July 2024, Brent crude futures rose to $96.78 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $89.31, each posting weekly gains of roughly 10% and 8% respectively. The rally followed attacks on commercial shipping: Yemen’s Houthi rebels struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea, and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) intensified missile and drone strikes on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. The combined pressure on the two chokepoints pushed global oil prices above $100 per barrel for the first time since May.
Background & Context
The conflict escalated after the United States launched a 13-night campaign of airstrikes on Iran beginning on July 11, responding to IRGC attacks on Hormuz traffic. Iran has pressed the Houthis to close the Bab el-Mandeb gateway, while the Houthis announced a naval blockade of Saudi-linked shipping. Diplomatic overtures have stalled; China is reportedly urging a resumption of U.S.–Iran talks, yet both sides continue to exchange missiles and drones.
Data & Statistics
- Brent futures rose $6.64 (7%) to $100.71 on July 23, then settled at $96.78 on July 24.
- WTI rose $5.18 (6%) to $92.01 on July 23, then settled at $89.31 on July 24.
- Kpler data recorded 32 vessel transits through Bab el-Mandeb on July 23, up from 26 the previous day.
- Daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell to roughly one-third of pre-war levels, according to U.S. Central Command.
Official Statements & Responses
The IRGC announced attacks on U.S. facilities in Jordan and warned of “powerful and decisive” retaliation. Saudi officials have not confirmed the extent of damage to the Aramco refinery in Jizan, but reported a large column of smoke after the Houthi missile strike.
Criticism & Opposition
Senior Arab officials expressed frustration, saying, “We have no clue where this is going,” and noting that daily escalations are eroding regional patience. Their comments highlight concerns that the conflict threatens broader Middle-East stability and global energy security.
On-the-Ground Reports
Houthi statements via the SABA news agency claimed missiles hit the Saudi tankers Encelia and Layla, igniting fires. Saudi state media confirmed a blaze on the Encelia but reported no casualties. Eyewitness footage from Jizan showed a thick plume of smoke rising from the Aramco refinery after the attack. At Bab el-Mandeb, two commodity vessels were recorded crossing on July 23, indicating that maritime traffic, while reduced, remains operational.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Saudi media reported a fire on the Encelia but did not mention the Layla, whereas Houthi sources asserted both tankers were struck.
- U.S. officials claim the Strait of Hormuz is “still open for transit,” yet vessel-tracking data shows a sustained decline to roughly one-third of historic traffic.
- Iran’s Revolutionary Guard announced a “completely closed” Hormuz, contradicting U.S. statements that commercial navigation continues under military protection.
