SpaceX’s Post-IPO Share Slump Raises Questions About Its AI Ambitions

SpaceX’s initial public offering closed at $160.95 per share. Within weeks the price rose to $201.80 on June 16, then fell to $115.07 on July 24, a 28.5 % decline that erased roughly $1 trillion from the company’s peak market capitalization of about $3 trillion, leaving a valuation near $2 trillion.

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The S-1 filing shows the space-launch segment performed about 650 launches, with 85 % of boosters reused, and accounted for an estimated 80 % of global mass-to-orbit in 2025 (as of March 31, 2026). That segment generated $4.09 billion in revenue in 2025.

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Starlink, the satellite-internet service, serves 10.3 million customers in 164 countries and is the only profitable division, though Fast Company notes the FCC has logged more than 900 complaints over the past five years about congestion, service quality, and the need for clear sky conditions.

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The AI division posted $3.20 billion in 2025 revenue but recorded a $818 million quarterly loss in Q1 2026, with total costs of $3.29 billion and a $2.47 billion loss for that quarter. Overall, SpaceX posted a net loss of $528 billion in 2025 but turned a $4.27 billion profit in Q1 2026, driven largely by connectivity revenue of $3.26 billion against $2.07 billion in expenses.

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Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas told clients that many investors “significantly discount” the AI products Grok and Cursor, assigning them zero or negative value because of high capital-expenditure needs, uncertain economics, and the substantial management focus they require. The firm argues that if SpaceX shares fall to $100, the market would effectively value the AI division at $0, creating a potential entry point for investors despite bearish sentiment.

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While the AI business appears financially thin and faces intense competition—including cost-advantaged offerings from China—SpaceX’s launch dominance and a profitable connectivity segment provide a buffer. Analysts remain divided on whether the current price dip represents a buying opportunity or a signal of deeper valuation challenges, especially as lock-up expirations could increase share supply. Potential investors are urged to weigh the company’s mixed financial picture against their risk tolerance.

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