Full Breakdown
Trump Threatens Deep-Underground Iranian Nuclear Site
7/28/2026, 12:03:02 AM
Core Event
“We'll be hitting that area very probably pretty soon. And there's not a thing they can do about it,” — Donald Trump, president. The statement followed reports that Israeli intelligence believes thousands of centrifuges may have been moved to the site after the June 2025 bombing campaign.
Background & Context
Pickaxe Mountain is an underground complex near the Natanz enrichment plant, estimated to lie beneath at least 100 m of rock and possibly as deep as 2,000 ft. The site was left untouched during earlier U.S. and Israeli strikes on Natanz, Fordow and Isfahan. The IAEA, never allowed inside, estimates Iran holds roughly 440 kg of uranium enriched to 60 %, enough for about ten nuclear weapons.
Military Feasibility
Analysts disagree on whether conventional bunker-busting weapons can reach the deepest chambers. Nicole Grajewski (Sciences Po) says destruction is “very close to impossible,” while Spencer Faragasso (Institute for Science and International Security) notes possible ventilation shafts that could serve as weak points. Retired Brig. Gen. Robert Spalding says planners must decide whether the goal is total destruction or simply denying use.
Diplomatic & Strategic Landscape
The United States has paused its air campaign for two days while talks with Oman aim to secure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz. White House communications director Steven Cheung said Iran should work toward a negotiated deal or “know what will happen.” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is scheduled to meet Trump, with Israeli officials expected to provide intelligence on Pickaxe Mountain. Iran’s army spokesman Mohammad Akraminia warned that U.S. airstrikes would expand the regional war.
Data & Statistics
Official Statements & Responses
- Trump reiterated the threat in a White House briefing, saying the United States would “take out Pickaxe Mountain.”
- The White House declined to comment on whether new intelligence prompted the shift.
- Iranian officials have not confirmed the presence of centrifuges and deny that the facility is being used for weapons development.
Criticism & Opposition
Sina Azodi, director of the Middle East Studies Program at George Washington University, argues that intensified air strikes will not alter Iran’s calculation and could “destroy any chance of diplomacy.” Saeid Golkar, an expert on Iranian security services, notes that many recent U.S. targets are of limited strategic impact and that removing hard-line leaders would be more consequential.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Israeli reports claim thousands of centrifuges have been moved to Pickaxe, while the Institute for Science and International Security states there is “no evidence” that enriched material has entered the site.
- The exact layout, ventilation shafts and internal schematics remain undisclosed, preventing a definitive assessment of air-strike effectiveness.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We'll be hitting that area very probably pretty soon. And there's not a thing they can do about it,” — Donald Trump
- “You assess what the goals are, and then you assess the costs associated with making something not fit for use — or destruction," Spalding said.” — Brig. Gen. Robert Spalding
- “ "At the minimum, the tunnel entrances can be collapsed," Faragasso added, saying a strike could also send damaging shock waves into the facility.” — Spencer Faragasso
What’s Next
A decision on whether to resume air strikes or launch a ground operation is expected after ongoing talks with Oman and the upcoming Netanyahu-Trump meeting.
