Europe Faces a Warmer-Than-Normal August Amid Persistent Heatwaves

Early-July seasonal updates from multiple forecasting services indicate that August is likely to be warmer than average across the continent. The strongest heat signal is projected over the Mediterranean and southeastern Europe, with “heat clusters” expected in Iberia, Italy, Greece and the Balkans. Night-time temperatures above 20 °C—classified as tropical nights—are forecast for cities such as Naples, Barcelona, Rome, Valencia, Nice, Thessaloniki, Split and Athens. The UK Met Office warns of possible 35 °C highs in August. Recent weeks have already seen temperatures exceed 40 °C, fueling wildfires that forced evacuations in France and Spain; a wildfire burned vegetation in Cotignac, France on July 22, 2026.

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Rapid attribution analysis by World Weather Attribution (WWA) examined the hottest three-day period in late June and concluded that both daytime highs and overnight temperatures would have been “virtually impossible” in 1976. The same analysis estimated that a comparable heatwave 50 years ago would have been 3.5 °C cooler. An Imperial College London, UK Met Office and London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine study linked recent heatwaves to climate-driven temperature increases of 3 °C–4 °C, estimating roughly 10 000 excess deaths. Researchers describe the science linking extreme heat to anthropogenic warming as “settled” and note “high confidence” in these findings.

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Heat domes—high-pressure systems that trap warm air—have become nearly three times more frequent since the 1950s, according to a 2025 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences study. A 2023 Climate Central analysis found that a heat dome causing 48 °C in Mexico and the southern US was at least five times more likely because of climate change. El Niño conditions, officially declared by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) earlier this year, can amplify drought and wildfire risk, though experts caution that the phenomenon is sometimes used to distract from human-caused warming. A claim circulated by Reform UK deputy leader Richard Tice that reduced aerosol pollution is driving Europe’s heatwaves was rebutted by ETH Zurich climate scientist Professor Erich Fischer, who emphasized that heatwaves stem from high-pressure systems intensified by long-term greenhouse-gas warming.

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• “Extreme heat is shattering records across Europe and the science is very clear about why: climate change is running rampant, caused by the world’s addiction to burning coal, oil and gas,” — Simon Stiell, UN Climate Change Executive Secretary

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