Full Breakdown
Netanyahu and Eisenkot Locked in Tight Race Ahead of Oct 27 Election
7/28/2026, 7:57:39 AM
Core Event: Poll Shows Even Split Between Incumbent and Challenger
A Channel 12 poll released on Monday found Israelis divided almost exactly between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, each receiving 38 % support. An earlier Channel 12 survey earlier in the month showed 43 % for Eisenkot and 34 % for Netanyahu. The same poll projected seat totals for the 120-member Knesset: Eisenkot’s new party Yashar leading with 23 seats, Likud close behind with 22, Bennett’s Together with 16, the Democrats with 10, Yisrael Beytenu with 9, and the Haredi parties Shas, United Torah Judaism, and Otzma Yehudit each at 8. Arab parties Hadash-Ta’al and Ra’am would each obtain 5 seats.
Background & Context: Eisenkot’s Rise and Campaign Themes
Eisenkot, former chief of staff of the Israeli military (2015-2019), is credited with the “Dahiya Doctrine,” a strategy of overwhelming retaliation against civilian-shielded enemy positions. His campaign, launched amid the war that followed the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, centers on a ten-point platform promising a state commission of inquiry into the October 7 assault, a new long-term national-security doctrine, and a “universal national service law” extending compulsory service to ultra-Orthodox Jews and Arab citizens. He also pledges to protect judicial independence, the rule of law, minority rights and a free press.
Former navy officer Yoaz Hendel and former education minister Chili Tropper have formed a centrist-right alliance that cleared the 3.25 % threshold, earning four seats. Their party emerged from reservists, widows and war-affected families that felt unrepresented. Hendel has declared he will sit only with Zionist parties and has blamed Netanyahu’s government for the October 7 attack.
Data & Statistics: Numbers from the Channel 12 Survey
- Preferred prime-ministerial choice: Netanyahu 38 % vs Eisenkot 38 % (current poll); earlier poll 43 % vs 34 %.
- “Best candidate” poll: Netanyahu 33 % vs others 59 %; 8 % undecided.
- Seat projections: Yashar 23, Likud 22, Together 16, Democrats 10, Yisrael Beytenu 9, Shas/UTJ/Otzma Yehudit 8 each, Arab parties 5 each.
- Issue influence on voting: 32 % cite war management, 25 % cost of living, 15 % societal divisions, 12 % crime and internal security.
- Sampling error: 4.4 % (509 respondents).
Official Statements & Responses
Hendel has said that Netanyahu’s government is responsible for the October 7 attack and that his party will align exclusively with Zionist factions, ruling out cooperation with Haredi or Arab parties.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ on the exact level of support for Netanyahu versus Eisenkot: one poll shows an exact 38 % tie, another earlier poll shows Eisenkot ahead 43 % to 34 %, while a third poll indicates only 33 % view Netanyahu as the best candidate and 59 % prefer another. No source provides Netanyahu’s detailed policy platform for the upcoming election.
What’s Next: Election on Oct 27
Israel’s scheduled Knesset election on October 27 will determine whether Netanyahu can retain power, whether Eisenkot can unseat him, or whether a coalition led by smaller parties such as Hendel-Tropper will shape the next government.
