Full Breakdown
SpaceX Share Slide Casts Doubt on AI Segment Valuation
7/28/2026, 12:36:52 PM
Core Event
Shares of SpaceX, the rocket-launch, satellite-connectivity and artificial-intelligence company, have fallen to a level that analysts say reflects a near-zero market value for its AI business. After a record $86 billion offering in mid-June, the stock surged almost 50 % in the first three sessions but has since retreated, trading around $110 in the most recent session.
Market Context and Analyst Outlook
Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas noted that investor sentiment has turned increasingly bearish while the company’s fundamentals remain largely unchanged. He linked the decline to broader rotation away from technology firms committing large capital to AI infrastructure, as well as a shaky macroeconomic backdrop marked by higher oil prices and heightened U.S.–Iran tensions. Despite the sell-off, Bloomberg data show that nearly 80 % of analysts covering SpaceX maintain buy-equivalent ratings, and the average price target of about $232 suggests expectations for the stock to more than double from current levels.
Valuation Metrics and Price Targets
Jonas projects a $300 price target for SpaceX, assigning more than half of that value to the AI segment. He argues that many investors “significantly discount Grok & Cursor,” the company’s AI products, and some even price the AI business at zero or negative value because of high capital-expenditure requirements, uncertain economics, and substantial management focus. The analyst expects the stock could fall to $100 per share when the first lock-up period expires next month, a level he says would embed a zero-value assessment for AI.
Official Statements & Responses
He highlighted that the market’s discounting of AI reflects concerns over capex intensity and the nascent revenue profile of products such as Grok and Cursor. Other banks that led the offering—Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup and JPMorgan Chase—have also issued buy-equivalent ratings, reinforcing a broadly bullish analyst consensus despite the recent price weakness.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Most investors we speak with significantly discount Grok & Cursor,” — Adam Jonas, morgan stanley analyst
