U.S. Consumer Confidence Dips as Gas Prices Surge Amid Iran-U.S. Conflict

The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index slipped to 90.8 in July, down from 92.2 in June. The decline follows a rebound in gasoline prices, which rose to $4.10 per gallon according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). Write-in responses collected from July 1 to July 22 remained pessimistic, reflecting heightened concern over the cost of living.

Associated Press

Inflation has risen since President Donald Trump’s inauguration, reaching 3.5 % from 3 % in January 2025. The report notes a sharper jump after the Iran-U.S. war began on Feb. 28, when inflation was 2.4 %. Iran’s shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil flows—triggered the gasoline price increase and contributed to the inflationary pressure. Food costs have also surged; the Bureau of Labor Statistics shows that a pound of ground beef cost $6.82 in June, a 79 % rise since early 2019. Consumers are responding with couponing, comparison-shopping, and cutting back on favored foods.

Associated Press

U.S. employers added only 57,000 jobs in the most recent month, less than half the prior month’s total, indicating a slowdown in hiring. The unemployment rate edged down to 4.2 % from 4.3 % in May, a change the report attributes largely to discouraged workers exiting the labor force. Expectations for the labor market six months ahead improved slightly but stayed in negative territory, and the Board anticipates that mentions of war and geopolitics could rise in the next survey.

Associated Press

The sustained dip in consumer confidence and rising prices pose a risk to President Donald Trump and Republican prospects in the midterm elections, now less than 100 days away. Trump continues to blame inflation on his predecessor, Democrat Joe Biden, while the data show that inflation has accelerated since his own inauguration and further spiked after the Iran conflict began.

Associated Press