Su-57D Prototype Crash Undermines Russia’s Stealth Fighter Ambitions

A Su-57 “Felon” two-seat prototype (Su-57D) crashed shortly after take-off from the Kubinka airbase in the Moscow region. The pilot ejected safely. The Russian defence ministry has attributed the accident to a technical malfunction, while Ukrainian sources have alleged that a hacked air-defence system caused the aircraft to be shot down; the allegation remains unverified and is deemed implausible by analysts. The incident follows the earlier loss of the first production jet in a 2019 test flight caused by a fault in its integrated control system.

iNews

The single-seat Su-57 entered service in 2020, and the two-seat Su-57D was promoted as a platform for “wingman-drone” warfare, intended to control Sukhoi S-70 Okhotnik heavy attack drones. First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov announced the start of the prototype’s flight tests in May. Initial plans called for 76 aircraft to be operational by 2028, but Russia currently fields fewer than 50. Export hopes have faltered: Algeria operates two Su-57E models and plans up to ten more, while a prospective sale to India remains stalled and no additional orders have been confirmed.

iNews

• Development costs have risen to roughly £90 billion per aircraft.

iNews

• Global arms-market share for Russia has fallen 64 percent over the past five years.

iNews

• The Su-57 program has seen at least two prototype crashes (2019 and the recent incident).

iNews

• The Su-75 “Checkmate” – a smaller stealth fighter intended to follow the Su-57 – has missed its original 2023 maiden-flight target and is now projected for 2025, with no flight yet completed.

iNews

The defence ministry’s brief statement cited a “technical malfunction” as the most likely cause, emphasizing that the pilot’s safe ejection demonstrated effective safety systems. Manturov, overseeing the defence-industrial sector, reiterated the program’s importance for modernising Russia’s air force and for generating export revenue. No official Russian comment has been made regarding the Ukrainian hacking claim.

iNews

The high-visibility loss of a flagship prototype compounds concerns about Russia’s ability to deliver advanced combat aircraft on schedule and within budget. With sanctions limiting access to high-tech components and recent underperformance of its Aerospace Forces in Ukraine, the crash threatens further erosion of confidence among potential foreign buyers, jeopardising a revenue stream that the Kremlin has counted on to fund both defence spending and broader research and development.

iNews