Labour Overtakes Reform UK in Polls After Burnham’s First Week

For more than a year, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK had led most British opinion polls, buoyed by strong local-election performances in May 2025 and a surge of seats in regional contests. On July 20, the Labour Party removed the unpopular Keir Starmer and installed former Greater Manchester mayor Andy Burnham as prime minister. Burnham’s first week featured a series of “cost-of-living” measures – a tax cut on energy bills, a £2 cap on bus fares and a 20 % business-rate reduction for pubs and clubs – aimed at giving voters “breathing space.” At the same time, Reform UK faced scrutiny over alleged undeclared gifts, a £5 million donation from crypto billionaire Christopher Harborne and ties to convicted fraudster George Cottrell.

The Guardian

Three recent national trackers show Labour moving ahead of Reform for the first time since March 2025:

UsNews and World Report

• Survation poll – Labour 26 % (up 1 point), Reform 24 % (down 2 points).

The Independent

• More in Common – Labour 28 % (up 4 points), Reform 24 % (down 2 points).

The Independent

• YouGov – Labour 22 %, Reform 22 % (tied).

UsNews and World Report

The Tories sit at 21-22 % across the surveys, while the Greens have slipped to 8-14 % depending on the poll. Professor Sir John Curtice notes that Reform’s support has fallen an average of three points since Farage called a Clacton by-election on July 6.

The Independent

Reform UK’s spokesperson said the party is “calm” about the polling shift, adding, “We expected Labour to go above us, we are calm about it. Let’s see where everyone is by December.” “We expected Labour to go above us, we are calm about it. Let’s see where everyone is by December.” — The spokesperson

The Independent

Professor Sir John Curtice warned that such bounces are “normal” and cited historical examples, noting that only Liz Truss failed to receive a post-appointment rise.

The Independent

The three surveys differ on the exact size of Labour’s lead and on the position of the Conservative Party, which ranges from 20 % to 22 % across polls. YouGov’s tie between Labour and Reform contrasts with Survation and More in Common, which show Labour ahead by four to six points. No poll provides a definitive projection of how these trends will translate into a general-election outcome, and the impact of ongoing investigations into Reform’s finances remains uncertain.

UsNews and World Report

• “Labour have definitely been given a second chance.” — Zack Polanski. Reform – “Labour have definitely been given a second chance.” — Zack Polanski, Reform

The Independent

• “We expected Labour to go above us, we are calm about it. Let’s see where everyone is by December.” — The spokesperson – “We expected Labour to go above us, we are calm about it. Let’s see where everyone is by December.” — The spokesperson

The Independent

These statements capture the contrasting perspectives of the two parties as the polling landscape shifts.

The Independent