Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Tightens as New Poll Shows Democrat James Talarico Ahead of Attorney General Ken Paxton
7/28/2026, 9:35:42 PM
Core Event: TPOR Poll Indicates a Five-Point Lead for Talarico
A TPOR poll conducted July 15-17 and released July 28 shows Democratic Rep. James Talarico leading Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton 45% to 40% in the U.S. Senate contest. The survey of 1,048 likely Texas voters has a margin of error of ±3.4 points. The lead is two points higher than TPOR’s May post-runoff poll.
Background & Context
Paxton secured the Republican nomination in the May 26 runoff, defeating Sen. John Cornyn. Democrats have not won a statewide office in Texas for more than three decades. The Cook Political Report rates the race “Lean Republican,” citing the state’s GOP history and Paxton’s ethical controversies. Democratic strategist Luke Warford directs TPOR, which labels itself nonpartisan.
Data & Statistics: Demographic and Ideological Breakdown
- Education: Talarico leads non-college voters 45%-36% and edges college-educated voters by one point.
- Race: Black voters 71%-8% for Talarico; Latino voters 66%-20%; white voters 53%-33% for Paxton.
- Party Affiliation: 7% of self-identified Republicans would vote for Talarico; 1% of Democrats would support Paxton.
- Independents and Moderates: Talarico captures 43% of independents and 54% of moderates.
- Undecided Voters: Overall undecided 14%; within that group 19% lean Paxton, 10% Talarico, 5% Libertarian Ted Brown.
Official Statements & Responses
Paxton’s campaign, speaking to USA Today on July 17, disputed allegations that he voted in six elections using a former address. Talarico posted a video on social media emphasizing his understanding of economic challenges facing working Texans.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Earlier polls offered different pictures. A New York Times/Siena poll (June 30) showed a tie at 47% each. A University of Texas-Texas Politics Project poll (June 23) had Paxton at 43% and Talarico at 42%. TPOR’s May poll placed Talarico ahead 47%-44%. These variations underscore the fluidity of voter preferences.
Why It Matters
A Democratic win would be the first statewide victory for the party in Texas since the early 1990s and could affect national Senate control. Analysts point to Paxton’s ethical issues and shifting voter attitudes toward President Trump as factors narrowing the GOP advantage. Republicans contend the GOP base will rally behind Paxton as the primary battle ends.
What’s Next
With less than 12 weeks until early voting opens in mid-October, the high share of undecided voters leaves room for both campaigns to shift the margin. The Senate race will be decided on Election Day in November, alongside other close statewide contests.
