Full Breakdown
Poll Indicates Tight Race in Colorado’s 5th Congressional District
7/28/2026, 10:24:13 PM
Core Findings from the July Poll
A Global Strategy Group survey of 450 likely 2026 voters, conducted July 16-21, shows Republican incumbent Jeff Crank leading Democrat Jessica Killin by a single point (45 % vs 44 %). Eleven percent of respondents remain undecided, and the poll carries a 4.6-point margin of error. The same poll notes that increasing familiarity with Killin and unfavorable views of former President Donald Trump among unaffiliated voters are boosting the Democratic candidate’s standing.
Historical Context and Demographic Shifts
The 5th District, centered on Colorado Springs, has never elected a Democrat since its creation in the 1970s. Republican margins have steadily narrowed: in 2016, then-Rep. Doug Lamborn won by 31 points; by 2022 the margin fell to 16 points; and in 2024, Jeff Crank secured a 14-point victory over Democrat River Gassen. Presidential and statewide results echo this trend—Trump’s margin in El Paso County dropped from 22 points in 2016 to 10 points in 2024, while Governor Jared Polis reduced his loss there from 17 points in 2018 to 4 points in 2022. The 2023 election of unaffiliated mayor Yemi Mobolade further signals a growing openness to non-Republican candidates.
Fundraising and Campaign Resources
Killin’s campaign has raised $3.1 million through June, including a $500,000 self-contribution, spent roughly $1.5 million, and entered July with about $1.6 million on hand. By contrast, Crank’s campaign raised $1.8 million, spent $900,000, and began July with just under $1.5 million cash-on-hand, supplemented by leftover funds from the 2024 cycle.
Party Strategies and National Implications
National Democrats have flagged the district as a potential target, with the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee weighing financial support based on the evolving national map. The House Majority PAC, aligned with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, has already reserved television ad time in the Colorado Springs/Pueblo market for the upcoming election. A Democratic flip would contribute to the party’s goal of securing a House majority in 2026.
Why the Race Matters
If Killin can convert undecided voters and maintain momentum from the poll, the 5th District could become the first Democratic foothold in a historically Republican stronghold, altering the balance of power in the U.S. House and shaping the broader national strategy for both parties in the 2026 midterms.
