Back to today’s briefing

Story perspectives

Warsh Faces Rate Decision, 29% Hike Odds, Yen Near 150

7/28/2026

50 4 Full Breakdown

Summary

Warsh Weighs Hike

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh will decide on rates at July 28-29 meeting, with markets assigning 29% chance of a 25-basis-point hike.
The Fed has kept its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% since December.
The Fed will not release a dot-plot at this meeting.
June CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year, with core CPI falling to 2.6%.
President Donald Trump urged lower rates and criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, adding pressure on Warsh.

Summary

USD/JPY Holds

USD/JPY trades near 150, within a 148-152 band as the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan keep hawkish holds.
DBS analysts say risks favor a sharp dollar upside while limiting downside potential, urging traders to manage risk before U.S. inflation and Japanese wage data.
The yen’s range-bound condition marks the end of the divergence era, and a breakout could follow an unexpected policy move, U.S. data, or a risk-appetite swing.

History

Historical Context

Facing double-digit inflation driven by the 1979-80 oil shocks, newly appointed Fed Chairman Paul Volcker raised the federal-funds target from 11 % to 12 % on 6 October 1979 and pushed it to a peak of 17.6 % by April 1980, triggering a recession. His aggressive stance broke the stagflation cycle and set a precedent for later policymakers confronting persistent price gains.

1 of 3

Warsh Weighs Hike

Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh will decide on rates at July 28-29 meeting, with markets assigning 29% chance of a 25-basis-point hike.
The Fed has kept its benchmark rate at 3.50%-3.75% since December.
The Fed will not release a dot-plot at this meeting.
June CPI rose 3.5% year-on-year, with core CPI falling to 2.6%.
President Donald Trump urged lower rates and criticized Fed Chair Jerome Powell, adding pressure on Warsh.

1 / 3