Democrats Target Four Senate Seats in 2026 Midterms

With President Donald Trump in the White House and a Republican vice president holding the tie-breaking vote, Democrats must win four Senate seats to claim a majority. Republicans acknowledge the math but say they can retain control; internal polling suggests a narrow margin. Analysts project a Democratic gain of one to three seats.

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• North Carolina – Open seat after Rep. Thom Tillis’s retirement. Former Gov. Roy Cooper leads former RNC chair Michael Whatley in polls and fundraising.

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• Alaska – Retired teacher Dan J. Sullivan’s candidacy creates a toss-up under the state’s ranked-choice system. Democrats hope former Rep. Mary Peltola can capitalize on affordability concerns.

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• Maine – After Democratic candidate Graham Platner withdrew, former state Senate president Troy Jackson will face Sen. Susan Collins, the only GOP senator in a state Trump lost in 2024.

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• Michigan – Centrist Rep. Haley Stevens faces progressive health official Abdul El-Sayed for the seat of retiring Sen. Gary Peters. Stevens has endorsements from Gov. Gretchen Whitmer and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.

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• Ohio – Former Sen. Sherrod Brown returns for a rematch against incumbent Rep. Jon Husted, appointed after Vice President Vance’s elevation to the Senate.

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• Texas – Attorney General Ken Paxton, endorsed by Trump, defeated Sen. John Cornyn and now faces Rep. James Talarico. The May 26 primary became the most expensive Senate contest in U.S. history, with spending exceeding $100 million.

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• Other notable contests include races in Iowa, New Hampshire, and Minnesota, each featuring a mix of incumbents, retirements and intra-party battles.

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The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced a $40 million “Win The Senate” investment for organizing, research and voter outreach in ten target states: Ohio, Alaska, Maine, Florida, Texas, North Carolina, Iowa, Michigan, New Hampshire and Georgia. Funds are earmarked for grassroots mobilization rather than television ads.

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• Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader – emphasized the need to protect Democratic priorities.

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• Republican leaders – highlighted President Trump’s agenda, including the SAVE America Act, and criticized Democratic spending as insufficient to overcome the Republican advantage in several states.

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• “John Thune should not allow the United States Senate to 'leave town' until it passes The Save America Act or, far better still, TERMINATES THE FILIBUSTER, where Republicans can then quickly pass everything they ever dreamed of, including a full and deep throated SAVE AMERICA ACT, the Budget, and the ever looming Debt Ceiling disaster, 1929!” — Donald Trump, president

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No direct contradictions appear among the sources regarding seat counts, candidate status or funding amounts. The precise number of seats Democrats must flip (four) is presented as a mathematical requirement, while Republican projections of a “narrow” majority lack specific figures.

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• Primary elections are slated for August in North Carolina, Alaska, Michigan and Minnesota, and for September in New Hampshire.

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• The May 26 primary in Texas has already concluded, marking the costliest Senate primary to date.

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• The November general election will determine whether Democrats achieve the four-seat gain needed for a Senate majority.

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