Full Breakdown
U.S. Consumer Confidence Drops Amid Rising Gas Prices Linked to Iran Conflict
7/29/2026, 5:48:50 AM
Core Event
The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index fell to 90.8 in July, down from 92.2 in June, remaining in the same low range seen since the start of the year. Gas prices, which had slipped to about $3.70 per gallon in early June, rose again to $4.10 per gallon according to the American Automobile Association (AAA). Write-in responses collected from July 1 to July 22 stayed pessimistic, with respondents mentioning higher gasoline and grocery costs.
Background & Context
In late February, Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz after being attacked by the United States and Israel. The strait carries roughly one-fifth of global oil shipments, and its closure triggered a spike in gasoline prices that fed broader inflation. Inflation rose to 3.5 % from 3 % in January 2025, jumping further after the conflict began on Feb. 28 when it was 2.4 %. Higher fuel costs have pushed food prices up, with the Bureau of Labor Statistics noting a 33 % increase in grocery costs since early 2019.
Data & Statistics
- Consumer confidence index: 90.8 (July) vs. 92.2 (June).
- Gas price: $4.10/gal (AAA) after a dip to $3.70/gal.
- Ground beef: $6.82 per pound in June, 79 % higher than early 2019.
- Unemployment rate: 4.2 %, down from 4.3 % in May, largely because some job seekers stopped looking.
- Job growth: U.S. employers added 57,000 jobs in June, less than half of May’s total.
- Labor-market outlook: Expectations for the next six months improved slightly but stayed negative.
Official Statements & Responses
President Donald Trump continues to attribute inflation to his predecessor, President Joe Biden. The Conference Board noted that mentions of gasoline prices were “down slightly but remained elevated,” and it warned that references to war and geopolitics could rise in the next survey. The Board also observed that consumers are coping by couponing, comparison-shopping and cutting back on favorite foods.
Why It Matters
The dip in confidence and rising living costs arrive less than 100 days before the midterm elections, posing a political risk for President Trump and Republican candidates. Households are adjusting spending habits amid the steepest grocery-price jump in half a century, underscoring the broader economic pressure from the Iran-related oil disruption.
