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Markets Favor El-Sayed; AIPAC Spends $30 M, Senate Toss-up

7/29/2026

47 6 Full Breakdown

Summary

El-Sayed Leads

Markets raised Abdul El-Sayed’s primary win odds to 71 %–72 % while Haley Stevens fell to roughly 30 % (Kalshi, Polymarket, July 26-28).
Tavern Research polls on July 26-27 gave El-Sayed 48 %-37 % and 46 %-36 % over Stevens, his widest leads.
AIPAC-linked United Democracy Project spent $30 million for Stevens and against El-Sayed.
In the July 28 debate, El-Sayed warned that AIPAC spent $46 million and backed a $3.3 billion Israel aid cut vote.

Summary

Democrats Target Senate

Kalshi and Polymarket give Democrats a 70 % chance to keep Michigan and Republicans a 56 % Senate advantage.
Decision Desk HQ notes Republicans hold a 53-45 Senate majority, so Democrats need four net seats and VP JD Vance’s tie-breaker.
Democrats must flip Alaska, Maine, North Carolina and Ohio while defending Michigan.
Emerson College Polling shows an 11-point generic-ballot lead for Democrats, the cycle’s widest, though some call it an outlier.

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El-Sayed Leads

Markets raised Abdul El-Sayed’s primary win odds to 71 %–72 % while Haley Stevens fell to roughly 30 % (Kalshi, Polymarket, July 26-28).
Tavern Research polls on July 26-27 gave El-Sayed 48 %-37 % and 46 %-36 % over Stevens, his widest leads.
AIPAC-linked United Democracy Project spent $30 million for Stevens and against El-Sayed.
In the July 28 debate, El-Sayed warned that AIPAC spent $46 million and backed a $3.3 billion Israel aid cut vote.

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