Full Breakdown
Israeli Election Set Amid Shifting Coalitions and Polls Predicting Netanyahu’s Defeat
7/29/2026, 11:58:30 PM
The Upcoming Vote
Israel will hold a national election to fill all 120 seats in the Knesset. It will be the first election since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack that led Israel into wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran. The election is expected to be one of the rare instances in which a Knesset completes a full four-year term.
Electoral System and Coalition Mechanics
Israel’s parliamentary system uses proportional representation. Party lists that receive at least 3.25 % of the national vote (equivalent to four seats) win seats in the Knesset. No party has ever secured an outright majority, so governments are formed by coalitions. Small parties therefore wield significant influence over the selection and durability of a prime minister. Parties must submit their candidate lists by a September deadline, a point at which additional parties may join, merge, or withdraw.
Main Candidates and Party Alignments
- Benjamin Netanyahu – Leader of Likud; heads a coalition that includes the pro-settler Religious Zionism party (led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich) and the far-right Jewish Power party (led by National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir). Ultra-Orthodox parties United Torah Judaism and Shas left the government in 2024 but have previously helped sustain it.
- Gadi Eisenkot – Former military chief and founder of the Yashar party; positioned as a security-focused outsider.
- Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid – Leaders of the Together alliance, which previously ousted Netanyahu in 2021.
- Avigdor Lieberman – Head of Israel Our Home, drawing support from Israel’s ex-Soviet immigrant community and known for hawkish positions.
- Yair Golan – Former general leading the left-wing Democrats.
- Arab-representing parties include Hadash, Ta’al, Raam and Balad, together accounting for roughly 20 % of the electorate.
Poll Outlook and Public Sentiment
Recent surveys indicate that Netanyahu is on course to lose the election. Analysts attribute this trend to the October 7 attacks, which “shattered his security credentials,” and to lingering corruption allegations. While the public has largely backed Israel’s wars against Hamas, Hezbollah and Iran, polls show low trust in Netanyahu’s leadership and dissatisfaction with his government’s religious-state policies.
Potential Impact
If Netanyahu’s coalition cannot secure a majority, the fragmented party landscape will likely produce a new coalition government, possibly elevating a figure such as Eisenkot or a joint opposition bloc. The election’s outcome will shape Israel’s domestic policy on religion, military service exemptions for ultra-Orthodox communities, and its strategic posture in the ongoing regional conflicts.
