Full Breakdown
Abdul El-Sayed Takes Lead Over Haley Stevens in Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Polls
7/30/2026, 8:40:18 PM
Latest Polls Show El-Sayed Ahead
The Emerson College/WLNS/WOODTV poll (July 26-27) of 700 likely Democratic primary voters found El-Sayed at 54 % versus Stevens at 39 %, with 6 % undecided. The poll’s margin of error is ±3.7 percentage points. A Tulchin Research poll (July 13-15) of 500 likely voters gave El-Sayed 56 % and Stevens 40 % (±4.38 pp).
Background & Context
Michigan’s open Senate seat will be vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D). Former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) is the presumptive Republican nominee. The Democratic primary pits former Detroit health director Abdul El-Sayed against Rep. Haley Stevens, who is endorsed by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
Data & Statistics
| Poll / Source | El-Sayed | Stevens | Undecided / Others |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College/WLNS/WOODTV (July 26-27) | 54 % | 39 % | 6 % |
| Tulchin Research (July 13-15) | 56 % | 40 % | 4 % |
| Data for Progress (July 10-14) | 54 % | 41 % | 5 % |
| Glengariff Group (July 8-11) | 41 % | 48 % | — |
| Prediction market – Kalshi (July 26-28) | 71 % chance | 30 % | — |
| Prediction market – Polymarket (July 26-28) | 72 % chance | 30 % | — |
The Emerson poll shows El-Sayed leading voters under 60, especially ages 18-29 (61 %–27 %) and 40-49 (73 %–19 %). Stevens leads voters 60 and older. Black voters favor Stevens 63 % to 33 %. Favorability ratings from Data for Progress list El-Sayed at 69 % favorable/17 % unfavorable, versus Stevens at 55 % favorable/33 % unfavorable.
Official Statements & Responses
Gov. Gretchen Whitmer endorsed Stevens, emphasizing her experience and electability.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
A Glengariff Group poll (July 8-11) placed Stevens ahead 48 % to 41 %. That poll noted a sizable block of undecided voters, suggesting volatility. Early-voting data have not been released, leaving the impact of ballots cast before the final debate on August 4 uncertain. Prediction markets favor El-Sayed, but odds can reflect trader sentiment as well as voter intent.
What’s Next
Michigan’s Democratic primary is scheduled for August 4. With prediction markets indicating a 70 %+ probability of an El-Sayed victory and polls showing a consistent lead, the final week will focus on turnout among each candidate’s coalition—El-Sayed’s younger, college-educated base versus Stevens’ older, higher-turnout demographics. The winner will face Rep. Mike Rogers in the November general election for a seat the Cook Political Report rates as a “toss-up.”
