Full Breakdown
Israeli Polls Show Likud Gains and Bennett’s Decline Ahead of Next Election
7/31/2026, 8:12:29 PM
Latest Poll Results on Party Support
A Channel 13 News poll released on a Wednesday indicated that support for both the Yashar! party and Likud rose this week, while backing for former prime minister Naftali Bennett continued to fall. In the poll, Likud and the Yashar! party each would win 23 Knesset seats if elections were held today, an increase of two seats for each compared with the poll’s previous iteration. Bennett’s projected tally slipped to 13 seats, his lowest figure in the outlet’s tracking. Avigdor Liberman’s Yisrael Beytenu was shown at 10 seats, and the Religious Zionist Party of Bezalel Smotrich at four seats after a one-seat drop.
Coalition versus Opposition Balance
The same poll placed the opposition bloc at 60 seats versus 51 for the governing coalition, with Arab parties collectively holding nine seats. A separate Maariv poll conducted by Lazar Research, led by Dr. Menachem Lazar in cooperation with Panel4All, reported Likud at 22 seats after a two-seat gain linked to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Washington visit and his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump. Despite Likud’s rise, the coalition’s total remained at 49 seats, short of the 61 needed for a majority, while the “change” bloc held 57 seats.
Emerging Parties and Electoral Threshold Effects
Both surveys noted the potential impact of new party formations. The Channel 13 poll suggested a new centrist-right list headed by Benny Gantz, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein and Dedi Simchi could capture roughly 3.8 % of the vote, translating to four seats. The Maariv poll projected that this new party might push the Zionist Home party of Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel below the 3.25 % threshold, reducing its support to 2.4 % and altering the coalition’s seat count by one.
Preferred Leaders for the Opposition Bloc
When respondents were asked who should lead the center-left opposition bloc, 45 % named Gadi Eisenkot, 25 % chose Bennett, 11 % selected Liberman and 10 % favored Yair Golan. In a separate question on prime-ministerial suitability, Bennett led Netanyahu by five percentage points (44 % to 39 %), while Eisenkot outpaced Netanyahu by ten points (48 % to 38 %).
Political Implications
The polling data suggest a modest resurgence for Likud and allied right-wing parties, contrasted with a steady erosion of Bennett’s appeal. If new centrist formations materialize and affect threshold outcomes, the coalition could edge closer to a governing majority, though current figures still fall short of the required 61 seats. Voter certainty remains split, with roughly half of respondents expressing confidence in the opposition bloc and a third committed to the coalition.
