Erosion of Trump’s Support Among Key Voter Groups Threatens GOP Midterm Prospects

Republican strategists are warning that the president’s waning appeal to minorities and independents—groups that helped him win a second term—could drag vulnerable GOP candidates in November. Senate Justice (R-W.Va.) said he does not believe Republicans can keep both chambers. The concern is amplified by the fact that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is targeting 46 Republican House seats while 35 Senate contests, including two special elections, are on the ballot.

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An Economist/YouGov survey conducted July 25-27 found Trump at 19 % among independents, a net approval drop of 53 points since the start of his second term, with overall approval at 34 %. The same survey recorded 31 % approval among Hispanics and 16 % among Black voters. A CNN poll directed by SSRS (July 23-27) reported identical overall approval of 34 %. A Quinnipiac poll covering the same period placed Trump’s job approval at 32 % overall and 22 % among independents, the lowest ever recorded by that outlet.

Bloomberg Government

Republican officials are scrambling to adjust. Rep. Nicole Malliotakis (R-N.Y.) said she has been urging the White House to adopt a more balanced immigration stance, hoping to regain Hispanic support. Campaign strategist Robert Jones highlighted Rep. David Valadao’s (R-Calif.) bipartisan record as a model for “non-traditional” races. On the Democratic side, Sen. Andy Kim (D-N.J.) stressed that the party must move beyond opposition rhetoric and articulate a positive agenda.

Bloomberg Government

The polling trends suggest that, if the midterms were held today, more voters would choose Democrats than Republicans. With independents and minority voters drifting away from Trump, GOP candidates in swing districts may face an uphill battle, especially in the dozen House seats the party currently holds and the nine Senate seats up for election.

Bloomberg Government

• “Independents now are overwhelmingly, it seems like, upset with the president. The polling is enough that we ought to be concerned,” — Congress. Sen. Jim Justice

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• “You’re already seeing drop-offs in Trump support among precisely the groups that switched to most heavily in the last election,” — Morris Fiorina, a political science professor at Stanford University

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• “He’s not shy to talk about his bipartisan record and his ability to work across the aisle,” — Robert Jones, a campaign strategist for Rep

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• “I’ve been trying to convince the White House to be a little more balanced,” — Rep. Nicole Malliotakis

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• “Many Hispanics agree with President Trump on his immigration policies,” — Jaime Florez

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