IBM Demonstrates Quantum Advantage, Targets Revenue Impact by Late 2020s

On July 30, 2026 IBM (NYSE: IBM) and University of Chicago researchers announced a quantum-computing experiment that met the criteria for “quantum advantage.” The team ran a circuit on 70 logical qubits, executing 2,415 logical two-qubit operations and 468 logical “T” gates. Encoding reduced logical error rates to one-tenth of the physical rates, allowing the computation to finish in roughly 15 minutes—far faster than classical simulators, which face prohibitive runtimes. Results were posted on the Quantum Advantage Tracker and validated across multiple hardware platforms, including runs on the Fugaku supercomputer.

IBM and The University of Chicago Demonstrate Quantum Advantage, Establishing Trusted Quantum Computation on Logical Circuits IBM and Qedma Demonstrate Quantum Advantage, Modeling Physics Beyond Classical Capabilities Through Trusted Quantum Computation IBM, UChicago demonstrate ‘quantum advantage,’ outperforming traditional computers with a quantum computer IBM Predicts Quantum Computing Revenue Impact by 2028-2029

Quantum advantage is reached when a quantum device solves a problem that classical computers cannot solve in practical time. IBM’s experiment replaced the usual random-circuit-sampling benchmark with a structured task that retains computational hardness while enabling error detection, addressing verification challenges noted by Bill Fefferman of the University of Chicago. Earlier, IBM partnered with Qedma and Algorithmiq to showcase quantum modeling of material physics, and announced a quantum-chip foundry backed by $1 billion from the U.S. Department of Commerce and a matching $1 billion from IBM.

IBM and The University of Chicago Demonstrate Quantum Advantage, Establishing Trusted Quantum Computation on Logical Circuits IBM, UChicago demonstrate ‘quantum advantage,’ outperforming traditional computers with a quantum computer IBM and Qedma Demonstrate Quantum Advantage, Modeling Physics Beyond Classical Capabilities Through Trusted Quantum Computation IBM Predicts Quantum Computing Revenue Impact by 2028-2029

• Logical qubits: 70

IBM and The University of Chicago Demonstrate Quantum Advantage, Establishing Trusted Quantum Computation on Logical Circuits

• Logical two-qubit operations: 2,415

IBM and The University of Chicago Demonstrate Quantum Advantage, Establishing Trusted Quantum Computation on Logical Circuits

• Logical “T” gates: 468

IBM and The University of Chicago Demonstrate Quantum Advantage, Establishing Trusted Quantum Computation on Logical Circuits

• Error-rate improvement: logical errors 10 × lower than physical errors

IBM and The University of Chicago Demonstrate Quantum Advantage, Establishing Trusted Quantum Computation on Logical Circuits

• Computation time: ~15 minutes vs. infeasible classical runtimes

IBM and Qedma Demonstrate Quantum Advantage, Modeling Physics Beyond Classical Capabilities Through Trusted Quantum Computation

• Funding for chip foundry: $2 billion total (U.S. government + IBM)

IBM Predicts Quantum Computing Revenue Impact by 2028-2029

Arvind Krishna, IBM’s CEO, said the company expects quantum-computing investments to begin affecting revenue and profit by 2028-2029 and highlighted material-behavior insights that could inform batteries, advanced materials, fusion energy and medicines. He reassured investors that recent client project delays were “deferrals, not cancellations,” with roughly 40 % of the deals already closed.

IBM Predicts Quantum Computing Revenue Impact by 2028-2029

Independent third-party verification beyond the released data has not been reported. The projected revenue impact relies on internal forecasts; no external market analysis has confirmed the timeline or magnitude of the anticipated $1 trillion value.

IBM Predicts Quantum Computing Revenue Impact by 2028-2029

• “I think that in 2028 or 2029, you'll see it have a measurable impact on our top line and bottom line,” — Arvind Krishna, IBM CEO

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• “We are now firmly in the quantum advantage era,” — Jay Gambetta, Director of IBM Research

IBM and The University of Chicago Demonstrate Quantum Advantage, Establishing Trusted Quantum Computation on Logical Circuits

IBM will scale its quantum-chip foundry and continue publishing benchmark circuits through the Quantum Advantage Tracker. The roadmap projects measurable revenue contributions by 2028-2029, with broader commercial applications expected throughout the 2030s.

IBM Predicts Quantum Computing Revenue Impact by 2028-2029