Full Breakdown
Missouri Voters Face Two High-Stakes Constitutional Amendments on Aug. 4, 2026
7/31/2026, 11:13:22 PM
Core Event
On Aug. 4, 2026, Missouri voters will decide whether to adopt Amendment 4, which would require citizen-initiated constitutional amendments to win a majority in all eight congressional districts as well as a statewide majority, and Amendment 5, which would authorize the General Assembly to phase out the state individual income tax and replace the lost revenue with expanded sales and use taxes.
Background & Context
Missouri’s initiative-petition process, in place since 1908, has enabled voters to approve Medicaid expansion, recreational marijuana, sports betting and abortion-rights measures. Lawmakers argue the current “simple-majority” threshold lets a few densely populated districts dominate outcomes, while critics warn the proposed district-by-district hurdle would make future citizen-driven changes nearly impossible.
Amendment 5 stems from Governor Mike Kehoe’s Jan. 2026 State of the State address, where he framed the plan as a “revenue-neutral” modernization that would shift taxation from labor to consumption. The amendment gives the legislature five years to expand the sales-tax base to goods and services that are presently untaxed.
Key Figures & Groups
- Gov. Mike Kehoe – champion of both amendments.
- State Rep. Bishop Davidson (R) – sponsor of Amendment 5.
- Missouri Auditor Scott Fitzpatrick – supports Amendment 5.
- Amy Blouin – President/CEO of the Missouri Budget Project, opposes Amendment 5.
- Rep. Ed Lewis (R) – sponsor of Amendment 4.
- Kelly Hall – Executive director of the Fairness Project, opposes Amendment 4.
Data & Statistics
- The state individual income tax generates roughly $8.5 billion annually, over half of Missouri’s general fund.
- ITEP estimates Amendment 5 would give the top 1 % of earners an average tax cut of $40,000, while households earning $50,000-$80,000 would face an average $535 increase.
- Blouin projects fully compensating the lost income-tax revenue could require raising the combined state-and-local sales tax to about 16 % on average.
Why It Matters / Impact
If passed, Amendment 5 would eliminate the income tax, potentially attracting businesses and retirees, but could shift a larger share of the tax burden onto low- and middle-income residents through higher consumption taxes. Amendment 4 would alter the balance of direct democracy, potentially preventing future citizen-initiated reforms.
Official Statements & Responses
- Auditor Fitzpatrick contends that states without an income tax, such as Tennessee, “are doing extremely well” and that Missouri could follow suit.
Criticism & Opposition
- Amy Blouin calls Amendment 5 a “bait and switch,” arguing it would raise the sales tax to 16 %, disproportionately affecting low-income households.
- Scott Charton, spokesperson for the Missouri Realtors campaign, describes Amendment 4 as “an astonishing level of unfairness” that would undermine “one person, one vote.”
On-the-Ground Reports
Town-hall meetings in Washington and Union drew roughly 50 participants each. Pro-Amendment 5 attendees cited personal financial relief, while opponents expressed concern that seniors would face higher taxes despite recent exemptions for Social Security benefits.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- The exact future sales-tax rate under Amendment 5 is unspecified; Blouin estimates 16 % to fully replace income-tax revenue, while Davidson suggests a possible range of 4-6 %.
- Projections of economic growth from eliminating the income tax are presented by supporters but lack independent fiscal analysis.
What’s Next
- Voters will cast ballots on Aug. 4, 2026.
- Early voting runs July 21–Aug. 3.
- If Amendment 5 passes, the legislature has five years to enact the sales-tax expansions and begin phasing out the income tax.
- If Amendment 4 is approved, future citizen-initiated constitutional measures will require district-wide majorities.
