Retired Admiral Says Iran’s Strategic Calculus Is Shifting Amid New Regional Moves

Retired Vice Adm. Robert Harward, former deputy commander of U.S. Central Command, told host Leland Vittert that Iran’s strategic thinking is already changing, both because of external pressures and internal dynamics. He highlighted recent cyber-attacks and the heightened strain on Iranian forces following a series of disarmament agreements across the Middle East. Harward noted that the United States launched a “heavy wave” of airstrikes against Iran on the same day the remarks were made, underscoring the intensifying military posture.

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In June, Lebanon announced a trilateral framework with Israel and the United States aimed at curbing Iran’s influence by reducing support for Hezbollah and facilitating an Israeli pull-back from southern Lebanon. President Donald Trump also publicized a Hamas-Israel deal through his “Board of Peace,” positioning it as the next phase of his 20-point plan to end Gaza hostilities. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabian armed forces have begun strikes against Iran-backed groups in Iraq that have targeted U.S. troops and Saudi energy assets. Saudi officials convened a meeting to assemble an international coalition focused on safeguarding Red Sea shipping from Iran-aligned Houthi attacks.

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He pointed out that roughly one-fifth of global oil passed through the strait before the conflict, and that the waterway has experienced partial and full closures since the February-2024 U.S.–Iran clash began. The U.S. military confirmed the airstrikes, describing them as a response to what Centcom termed “attempted surprise attacks” from Iran.

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The shifting Iranian calculus, combined with coordinated diplomatic and military actions by the United States, Israel, Lebanon, and Saudi Arabia, heightens the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea routes. Disruptions to these chokepoints could reverberate through the international economy, affecting oil supply and global trade flows.

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