Full Breakdown
Trump’s Approval Hits Historic Low Amid Iran War and Rising Gas Prices
8/2/2026, 12:12:50 AM
Core Event: Record-Low Approval in the Second Term
In late July 2026, three major pollsters reported President Donald J. Trump’s approval rating fell to the lowest point of his second term. An AP-NORC survey (July 23-27) showed 33 % approval and 66 % disapproval; Quinnipiac recorded 32 % approval and 58 % disapproval; CNN/SSRS placed approval at 34 %, matching the career low after the January 6, 2021, insurrection.
Background & Context: Iran War and Oil-Market Disruption
The United States and Iran have been in conflict since the strikes on Feb. 28. Repeated attacks in the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly 20 % of global oil passes—have constrained shipments and pushed U.S. gasoline prices upward. AAA reported the national average for regular gasoline at $4.11 on a Friday morning, up from about $3.15 a year earlier.
Data & Statistics: Poll Numbers, Gas Prices, and Economic Sentiment
| Poll (date) | Approval | Disapproval | Sample |
|---|---|---|---|
| AP-NORC (July 23-27) | 33 % | 66 % | 1,165 adults |
| Quinnipiac (July 23-27) | 32 % | 58 % | 963 registered voters |
| CNN/SSRS (July 23-27) | 34 % | 66 % | 1,225 adults |
| Economist/YouGov (July 25-27) | 34 % | 62 % | 1,559 adults |
| Decision Desk HQ (early July) | 40.6 % | 57.5 % | — |
AAA’s gas-price data show a peak of $4.56 on May 21 and a low of $2.96 on Feb. 26, two days before the war began. The University of Michigan’s July consumer-sentiment index rose to 54.4, still about 12 % below its level a year earlier.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Timing lines up remarkably well with gas prices and the resumption of hostilities in Iran,” — Nate Silver, political analyst
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
All three July polls agree approval is below 35 %, though figures differ by up to three points. Support for continued U.S. military action against Iran also varies: Quinnipiac found 34 % in favor, AP-NORC 33 %, and a CBS/YouGov poll later in July recorded 39 %. No poll provides a definitive projection of how long the conflict will persist, leaving analysts uncertain about future public sentiment.
Why It Matters / Impact
Presidential approval below 40 % historically precedes challenging midterm elections for the incumbent party. The current low aligns with heightened economic concerns—particularly gas prices—and widespread opposition to the Iran war, with 60 % of voters opposing the conflict in the Quinnipiac survey, the highest level since the war began. As the 2026 midterms approach, the combination of economic strain and war fatigue could shape voter turnout and party performance in Congress.
