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Full Breakdown

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)+ Announces September 2026 Production Increase, Completing Voluntary-Cut Rollback

8/3/2026, 12:04:29 PM

Core Decision

On August 2, the core members of the OPEC+ alliance—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman—agreed in a virtual meeting to raise their collective oil output by 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) beginning in September 2026. The increase finishes the phased unwinding of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary production cut introduced in April 2023. The decision was announced in an OPEC joint statement and will take effect in September.

Background & Context

The April 2023 voluntary cuts were added to earlier reductions announced in October 2022 (?2 million bpd) and a November 2023 cut (?2.2 million bpd), bringing total OPEC+ curbs to about 5.85 million bpd by March 2025. A separate layer of cuts amounting to roughly 2 million bpd—originally imposed in 2022—remains in place until the end of 2026.

The United Arab Emirates left OPEC on May 1, 2026, after having participated in the original 2023 agreement. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, notably the Iran-U.S. confrontation and the war in Ukraine, have constrained export routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, limiting the immediate market impact of production adjustments.

Data & Statistics

Data & Statistics
MetricFigureSource
Production increase announced188,000 bpdOPEC joint statement
Voluntary cut being unwound1.65 million bpd (April 2023)OPEC
Remaining 2022-era cuts~2 million bpd (to stay until year-end)OPEC
Total OPEC+ members21OPEC
Russia’s June 2026 output8.928 million bpd (?0.9 million bpd below quota)OPEC data
Russia’s target output9.8 million bpdOPEC data
Kuwait’s planned September output2.676 million bpdKuwait Oil Ministry

Official Statements & Responses

The Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) reiterated that attacks on energy infrastructure increase market volatility and raise restoration costs. It noted that a “temporary pause in production increases” during the fourth quarter remains a viable option while the group prepares for 2027 quota negotiations.

Verbatim Quotes

  • “I don't think cohesion is at risk at this very moment,” — Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad

Why It Matters

The September adjustment marks the final phase of reversing the 2023 voluntary cuts, shifting the alliance’s focus to how it will handle any emerging oversupply once export routes recover. Analysts expect limited near-term price effects because the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, but a normalization of shipping could allow the additional 188,000 bpd to exert greater downward pressure on global crude prices. The decision also sets the stage for the 2027 output-baseline negotiations, where several members—including Iraq—are expected to seek higher individual quotas.

What’s Next

  • September 6 (scheduled): OPEC+ meeting to review October production levels.
  • September 4 2026 (scheduled): Kuwait’s oil-ministry-led meeting of the participating countries.

Both gatherings will assess market conditions, monitor compliance with the Declaration of Cooperation, and consider whether to pause further production increases in the fourth quarter of 2026.