Back to today’s briefing

Story perspectives

2027 Social Security COLA Forecasts Hover Around 3.7%

8/3/2026

40 7 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

The Senior Citizens League predicts a 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) of 3.8%.
AARP announced on July 14 that it projects a 2027 COLA of 3.6%, its first prediction.
Analyst Mary Johnson cut her 2027 estimate to 3.7%, down from 4.7% the month before.
The 2027 COLA will be announced on October 14 after July-September 2026 CPI-W data are released.

History

Historical Context

The 1983 Social Security Amendments, signed by President Ronald Reagan, expanded financing after the 1975 law that first mandated automatic COLAs, allocating $1.5 trillion to the trust fund and raising payroll taxes by 7.5%. Because COLAs still use the CPI-W index, groups such as AARP and the Senior Citizens League now project 2027 adjustments near 3.7%, amid trustees’ 2035 depletion warning.

1 of 2

Story summary

The Senior Citizens League predicts a 2027 Social Security cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) of 3.8%.
AARP announced on July 14 that it projects a 2027 COLA of 3.6%, its first prediction.
Analyst Mary Johnson cut her 2027 estimate to 3.7%, down from 4.7% the month before.
The 2027 COLA will be announced on October 14 after July-September 2026 CPI-W data are released.

1 / 2