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EY warns UK contraction 2027 if Hormuz stays closed

8/3/2026

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Story summary
  • EY chief economist Peter Arnold warned Britain could contract in 2027 if the Strait of Hormuz stays closed.
  • EY raised its growth forecast to 0.8% and sees 1.2% growth in 2027 if the strait reopens.
  • EY’s worst-case outlook predicts 0.5% growth this year, a 0.2% contraction in 2027 and inflation reaching 6.4% by year-end.
  • U.S. President Donald Trump said Iran talks start Monday and he called off a massive attack.