Full Breakdown
Likud Gains Seats in Latest Poll as Netanyahu Visits Washington
8/4/2026, 1:45:16 AM
Likud’s Recent Poll Surge
A poll released this week shows Likud increasing its Knesset representation by two seats, bringing the party to 22 seats. The rise is reported alongside Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s trip to Washington and his meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Coalition and Opposition Seat Outlook
The same poll indicates that the governing coalition bloc remains at 49 seats, short of the 61-seat majority required to form a government. The opposition bloc is projected at 57 seats, also below the majority threshold. However, the Zionist Home party—led by Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel—has crossed the electoral threshold with four seats, a development that could push the coalition to a slim majority of 50 seats if other calculations hold.
Emerging Center-Right Party Scenario
A newly surveyed party featuring Benny Gantz, Ayelet Shaked, Yuli Edelstein and Dedi Simchi is expected to capture about 3.8 % of the vote, roughly four seats. Analysts in the poll suggest that this party’s entry would mainly siphon support from Tropper and Hendel’s Zionist Home, reducing its projected share to 2.4 % and potentially leaving the coalition with only one additional seat, raising it to 50. In that scenario, the opposition bloc would fall to 56 seats while Arab parties would stay at 10 seats.
Opposition Voter Leadership Preferences
Among respondents who intend to vote for opposition parties, 45 % favor Gadi Eisenkot as the leader of a future center-left bloc, while 25 % prefer Naftali Bennett, 11 % Avigdor Liberman and 10 % Yair Golan. When asked who would make a better prime minister, Bennett leads Netanyahu by five percentage points (44 % to 39 %). Eisenkot leads Netanyahu by ten points (48 % to 38 %).
Implications for the Next Knesset Election
The poll’s projections suggest that, without additional parties entering the coalition, the governing bloc will remain short of a clear majority. The performance of the new center-right party and the Zionist Home’s threshold crossing could be decisive in determining whether the coalition can secure the 61 seats needed to govern, underscoring the fluid nature of Israel’s parliamentary arithmetic ahead of the next election.
