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SpaceX Releases First Earnings, 32% Short Interest, Massive Lockup

8/4/2026

Summary

SpaceX Earnings

SpaceX will issue its first earnings report as a public company on Tuesday after market close.
Analysts expect Q1 revenue of $6.9 billion, while a filing shows 2023 revenue of $18.7 billion, a net loss over $4.9 billion, AI revenue of $818 million in early 2026, and an anticipated 93 % rise in Starlink subscribers in 2026.
The post-IPO lockup expires Aug. 6, potentially releasing over 900 million shares.

Summary

SpaceX Short Surge

Short sellers hold $23.6 billion of SpaceX stock—32.2 % of the float—beating Tesla’s $22 billion short, short interest climbing from 5-7 % at the IPO to ~32 %, S3 Partners reports.
Options-implied volatility hit 148.7 % for the week ending Aug 7, versus a 74.9 % average.
The Aug 6 lock-up will release ~911.5 million shares—20-30 % of the float—worth $116 billion at today’s price, while New Street’s $165 target and a median $225 forecast from 37 analysts imply double by mid-2027.

History

Historical Context

Tesla’s June 29 2010 Nasdaq debut—13.3 million shares at $17, the first U.S. automaker IPO since Ford in 1956—sparked intense short-seller focus that later peaked at about 20% of its stock in early 2020. That legacy of volatility frames SpaceX’s 2024 public launch, where a significant major lock-up release could trigger similar market swings.

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SpaceX Earnings

SpaceX will issue its first earnings report as a public company on Tuesday after market close.
Analysts expect Q1 revenue of $6.9 billion, while a filing shows 2023 revenue of $18.7 billion, a net loss over $4.9 billion, AI revenue of $818 million in early 2026, and an anticipated 93 % rise in Starlink subscribers in 2026.
The post-IPO lockup expires Aug. 6, potentially releasing over 900 million shares.

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