Full Breakdown
Poll Shows Deadlock and Growing Public Skepticism Ahead of Israel’s October 27 Election
8/4/2026, 8:02:35 AM
Projected Knesset Balance
A Midgam survey of 503 respondents (4.4 % margin of error) conducted ahead of the October 27 elections projects the current Zionist opposition parties at 56 seats, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc at 50 seats, the centrist Zionist Home at 4 seats, and the mainly Arab parties Ra’am and Hadash-Ta’al at 5 seats each. If Yoav Segalovitz of Yesh Atid were to join Ra’am—contingent on the party recognizing Israel as a Jewish and democratic state and supporting civil-service alternatives to the draft—the opposition bloc would slip to 55 seats, Ra’am would rise to 6, and the anti-Netanyahu coalition could reach a solid majority of 65 seats.
Prime-Minister Preference
The same poll finds Netanyahu and challenger Gadi Eiskot tied at 37 % each for preferred prime minister, while Netanyahu edges out Naftali Bennett (38 % to 37 %).
Doubt About War Outcomes
A clear majority—62 %—does not believe Israel will ever achieve Netanyahu’s promised “total victory” in Gaza, versus 25 % who do. Respondents also doubt disarmament: 63 % think Hezbollah will never disarm (23 % think it will), and 72 % doubt Hamas will ever lay down arms (18 % think it will).
Perceptions of the Iran Threat and War Policy
When asked about Iran, 27 % say the threat has grown because of Israeli policy, 28 % say it is unchanged, and 35 % say it has lessened. A narrow majority—51 %—supports renewing the war against Iran, while 34 % oppose it.
Evaluation of Defense Minister Israel Katz
The poll rates Defense Minister Israel Katz poorly: 57 % assign a “bad” grade to his performance, compared with 34 % who rate it “good.” Moreover, 47 % view his attempt to remove IDF Central Command chief Maj. Gen. Avi Bluth as inappropriate, versus 17 % who deem it appropriate.
These findings illustrate a fragmented parliamentary outlook and widespread public skepticism about Israel’s war strategy as voters head to the ballot.
