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Texas Projected Top-Five, 70% Playoff Odds; LSU Faces “Playoff-or-Bust”

8/4/2026

39 6 Full Breakdown

Summary

Texas Playoff Push

Texas Longhorns are projected in the top five for 2026 after a 9-3 season.
ESPN gives Texas a 69.9% chance of making the playoff.
LSU, led by first-year coach Lane Kiffin, faces a “playoff or bust” scenario after a 4-8 2025 season.
Clemson ranks 29th with a 21.1% playoff chance, according to ESPN’s Heather Dinich.

Summary

BYU Ranked

A beat-writer poll of all 16 Big 12 teams ranks BYU second behind Texas Tech, despite no official preseason poll.
Head coach Kalani Sitake says he rejects CFP campaigning, insisting the team must earn its spot.
Transfer linebacker Cade Uluave from Cal joins a linebacker group already an all-Big 12 preseason pick.
Offensive line coach TJ Woods emphasizes continuity, with returning starters Mitchell, Sfarcioc, Gentry and newcomer transfer Paki Finau.

History

Historical Context

In 2014 the College Football Playoff replaced the Bowl Championship Series with a four-team, committee-selected knockout that for the first time let a bracket decide the FBS champion. Persistent criticism over excluded Power Five champions spurred a 2023 board vote to expand the field to 12 teams beginning in the 2024 season, intensifying competition among programs such as Texas, LSU and BYU for limited slots.

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Texas Playoff Push

Texas Longhorns are projected in the top five for 2026 after a 9-3 season.
ESPN gives Texas a 69.9% chance of making the playoff.
LSU, led by first-year coach Lane Kiffin, faces a “playoff or bust” scenario after a 4-8 2025 season.
Clemson ranks 29th with a 21.1% playoff chance, according to ESPN’s Heather Dinich.

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