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Brazil Cuts Selic to 14% Amid Inflation Expectation Risks

8/4/2026

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Summary

Story summary

Brazil's central bank will cut the Selic rate to 14.00% on August 5, its fourth reduction after the rate fell from a 15% two-decade high to 14.25%.
A Reuters poll of 42 analysts (July 27-31) found 38 expected the cut and four expected the rate to stay at 14.25%.
Citi analysts warned inflation expectations remain de-anchored from the 3.0% target for 2027-2028, which could keep rates on hold despite lower inflation prints.

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Story summary

Brazil's central bank will cut the Selic rate to 14.00% on August 5, its fourth reduction after the rate fell from a 15% two-decade high to 14.25%.
A Reuters poll of 42 analysts (July 27-31) found 38 expected the cut and four expected the rate to stay at 14.25%.
Citi analysts warned inflation expectations remain de-anchored from the 3.0% target for 2027-2028, which could keep rates on hold despite lower inflation prints.