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Democrat Talarico Holds Narrow Lead Over Paxton in Texas Senate Poll

8/4/2026

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Talarico Leads

Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in late-July 2026 Texas polls.
Talarico unveiled a $25 million program to boost Black voter outreach during a Houston event.
A Texas Southern University poll (1,200 voters, July 27-30) showed Talarico 47% vs Paxton 45% (±2.83%).
Talarico leads Black voters 79% to 12% and Latino voters 57% to 38% statewide overall.

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Talarico Leads

Late-July 2026 polls show Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico narrowly ahead of Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas.
Voters worry more about Paxton’s character than Talarico’s perceived extremism, a concern the Paxton campaign downplays.
The Paxton campaign dismissed the poll, saying only the November 3 election matters.
Prediction-market odds on Kalshi and Polymarket still favor Paxton, showing a 53-47% and 52-48% edge.

History

Historical Context

In 2008, Barack Obama’s campaign turned Texas’s African-American electorate into a decisive bloc, with exit polls showing over 95% of Black voters supporting him and narrowing the Republican margin to 55.45%–43.68% in a state that had voted Republican since 1996. James Talarico’s upcoming Senate bid seeks to replicate Obama’s 2008 Texas Black-voter mobilization.

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Talarico Leads

Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico leads Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton in late-July 2026 Texas polls.
Talarico unveiled a $25 million program to boost Black voter outreach during a Houston event.
A Texas Southern University poll (1,200 voters, July 27-30) showed Talarico 47% vs Paxton 45% (±2.83%).
Talarico leads Black voters 79% to 12% and Latino voters 57% to 38% statewide overall.

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