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81% Chance Strong El Niño 2026-27 Raises Food Inflation

8/5/2026

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Summary

Story summary

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives an 81 % chance of a strong El Niño in Oct-Dec 2026 and a 97 % chance it persists into 2027.
The World Meteorological Organization warns the El Niño raises drought, flood and wildfire risk across Africa, the Indian Ocean basin and Europe.
JPMorgan estimates a super El Niño could lift food-price inflation by 0.7 percentage points, possibly 1.3-1.5 pp with higher energy costs.

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Story summary

NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center gives an 81 % chance of a strong El Niño in Oct-Dec 2026 and a 97 % chance it persists into 2027.
The World Meteorological Organization warns the El Niño raises drought, flood and wildfire risk across Africa, the Indian Ocean basin and Europe.
JPMorgan estimates a super El Niño could lift food-price inflation by 0.7 percentage points, possibly 1.3-1.5 pp with higher energy costs.