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Democrat Pulido Leads Texas 15 Race, Sabato Marks Republican Lean

8/5/2026

40 6 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

Democrat Bobby Pulido leads Rep. Monica De La Cruz 51% to 45% in a House Majority PAC poll of 500 voters surveyed July 23-28, 2026 (±4.4% margin).
Kalshi’s market gave Pulido a 67% win probability versus 41% for De La Cruz, while Polymarket listed Pulido at 67% and De La Cruz at 30%.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted TX-15 from Likely Republican to Leans Republican on July 30, with the race set for November 3, 2026.

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Story summary

Democrat Bobby Pulido leads Rep. Monica De La Cruz 51% to 45% in a House Majority PAC poll of 500 voters surveyed July 23-28, 2026 (±4.4% margin).
Kalshi’s market gave Pulido a 67% win probability versus 41% for De La Cruz, while Polymarket listed Pulido at 67% and De La Cruz at 30%.
Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted TX-15 from Likely Republican to Leans Republican on July 30, with the race set for November 3, 2026.