Full Breakdown
Trump’s Approval Slides Negative in Eleven Red States, Raising Stakes for Senate Races
8/5/2026, 9:12:28 PM
Core Shift in State-Level Approval
A rolling online poll by Civiqs, based on more than 120,000 registered-voter responses collected since Trump returned to office in January 2025, recorded a national net approval of -24 (36 % approve, 59 % disapprove) as of July 30. The same data show that eleven states Trump carried by at least ten points in the 2024 election now register negative net approval. Those states are Florida (-12, 42 % approve/54 % disapprove), Texas (-13, 40 %/54 %), Ohio (-13), Alaska (-14), Iowa (-14), South Carolina (-9), Missouri (-7), Louisiana (-4), Kentucky (-3), Nebraska (-3) and Mississippi (-1).
Policy Events Influencing the Decline
The timing of the downturn varies. In several states, disapproval overtook approval shortly after Trump announced a sweeping set of import levies on dozens of countries in early April 2025, a rollout dubbed “Liberation Day.” In Kentucky and Missouri, the shift occurred later, after Trump authorized joint U.S.–Israeli strikes on Iran in late February 2026, an action that sparked the 2026 Iran war and briefly dented his broader public standing.
Numerical Snapshot
Beyond the eleven turning negative, Trump’s strongest remaining foothold is Wyoming, now at a +19 net rating, down from +45 at the start of his term; North Dakota mirrors this decline to +19. The seven traditional 2024 battleground states show deeper deficits: Georgia (-22), Michigan and Nevada (-21 each), Pennsylvania (-18), Wisconsin (-16), North Carolina (-15) and Arizona (-12).
Senate Race Implications
The erosion matters for the 2026 Senate map, where Democrats must flip four seats to claim a majority. Three closely watched contests lie in states where Trump’s approval is now negative: Iowa (Democratic state lawmaker Josh Turek challenging GOP Rep. Ashley Hinson for the seat of retiring Sen. Joni Ernst), Ohio (former Sen. Sherrod Brown seeking to retake a seat held by Republican Jon Husted), and Texas (Democratic Rep. James Talarico versus Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton). Trump carried all three comfortably in 2024.
Official Response
White House spokesman Davis Ingle countered the poll findings by emphasizing Trump’s 2024 electoral victory as the true measure of public support, a stance the administration has reiterated that election outcomes outweigh week-to-week polling fluctuations.